Season on the Brink

Today's game against Jacksonville is the first time in a long time that the Colts have been in a virtual must-win situation. Here are the only other games of the last decade that even come close:

November 2, 2008 vs. New England: Colts were off to a 3-4 start after a blowout loss in Nashville to the Titans, who had opened up at 7-0. It was a Sunday Night game against Matt Cassel and the 5-2 Patriots at Lucas Oil Stadium. A sloppy 18-15 win kick-started a nine-game win streak that saved their season.

November 8, 2004 vs. Minnesota: Colts entered a Monday Night duel with 5-2 Minnesota at a sluggish 4-3. Manning and Dante Culpepper traded blows for five straight possessions before Mike Vanderjagt won it with a 35-yard field goal with seconds left. The win sent the Colts on an eight-game wins streak before a loss in the season-finale.

November 10, 2002 at Philadelphia: the Colts were 4-4 and didn’t seem to be going anywhere after a three-game losing skid including a home loss to the first-place Titans in the week prior. Manning and Indy carved up the 5-2 Eagles, one of the top defenses in the league entering the game, as Manning threw for 319 yards and James Mungro paced the rushing attack with 114 yards on the ground in a 35-13 romp.

December 11 and 18, 2000 vs. Buffalo and at Miami: a potential playoff spot was on the line in the AFC East as the Bills and Colts each entered the game at 7-6. Edgerrin James ran for three scores as the Colts pounded Buffalo 44-20. The next week, the Colts knocked off the division-leading Dolphins 20-13 to lock up a Wild Card spot in a tight race that included the 9-7 Jets as well. In a cruel twist of fate, less than a month after their win in South Beach, the Colts were eliminated in the playoffs by the Dolphins in overtime.

Perfectly Average

Many times in sports, you can skip steps.

In 2006, George Mason wasn't known as a mid-major power and they hadn't made a Sweet 16 appearance before. The 1997 Marlins had never even made the playoffs before winning the World Series. Florida State, a nothing program prior to the 1980's, was 10-2 in Bobby Bowden's second year in 1977 and was dominant for the next two decades.

Unfortunately, the Pacers don't have that luxury.
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Following last night's loss to Atlanta, Indiana is an even 11-11. They're 6-5 at home, and 5-6 on the road. They've knocked off the Lakers in Los Angeles and they've beaten-up on Denver. They've also lost by 26 in Philadelphia, and have fallen twice to the nine-win Bucks. The Pacers are 16th out of 30 NBA teams in scoring (99.6 ppg), and 17th in scoring defense (97.4).
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In a word, the Pacers are perfectly average.

There's nothing wrong with being a middle-of-the-road team - the Pacers are 139-189 over the last four seasons combined. This season is just the second step for this franchise, and not all teams can go from the basement to the top of the staircase in one year.

Finally, there is a young core to build around. Darren Collison hasn't overshot, or undershot, expectations. He's exactly what most Pacers' fans thought he was going to be. Brandon Rush is showing signs of life in year three, and may finally live up to his potential. Roy Hibbert continues to grow, and it's hard to see someone with his work ethic not succeeding. Being on the end of the bench during the World Championships was the humbling experience that Danny Granger needed, and he's responded by becoming a stronger team player. A.J. Price, Tyler Hansbrough, and Josh McRoberts have contributed when given proper minutes. All of the players on this list, outside of Granger who is 27, are 25 or younger and none of them have played more than three seasons in the league.

Average doesn't equal championships, but don't go shoveling dirt on 2010-11. This isn't a throwaway year. If the season ended today, the Pacers would be the 7th seed in the East and find themselves in the playoffs for the first time since 2006. After the top five (Boston, Orlando, Chicago, Miami, Atlanta) in the East, there appears to be a big drop-off. There isn't any reason to believe that the Pacers can't compete with the Knicks, Bobcats, Bucks, Raptors, Sixers, Pistons, and Cavaliers for three playoff spots.

Conseco Fieldhouse is still half-empty, and I may still have to ask someone behind the bar to turn on the Pacers game when I'm at a downtown establishment, but this team is slowly on its way back up. Average may not be that far off from bad, but it's a heck of a lot closer to good.

Swing and Miss

If you need a reason why the Colts have apparently fallen off a cliff in 2010 with their disappointing 6-6 record, look no further then some of their most recent Draft classes. It's unfair to make a blanket judgement on the 2010 class, mostly because those players are still rookies. Even though Jerry Hughes has been a disappointment, he should be given more than twelve games to prove himself, as should the rest of the group.

However, if you look at the 2007, 2008, and 2009 Draft classes, Bill Polian has been missing a lot more than he's been hitting.

2007
1 – WR Anthony Gonzalez
2 – OT Tony Ugoh
3 – CB Dante Hughes
3 – DT Quin Pitcock
4 – S Brannon Condren
4 – LB Clint Session
5 – WR Roy Hall
5 – CB Michael Coe
7 – DE Keyunta Dawson

2008
2 – OG Mike Pollak
3 – LB Philip Wheeler
4 – TE Jacob Tamme
5 – DE Marcus Howard
6 – TE Tom Santi
6 – C Steve Justice
6 – RB Mike Hart
6 – WR Pierre Garcon
7 – C Jamey Richard

2009
1 – RB Donald Brown
2 – DT Fili Moala
3 – CB Jerraud Powers
4 – WR Austin Collie
4 – DT Terrance Taylor
6 - QB Curtis Painter
7 – P Pat McAfee
7 – OG Jaimie Thomas

Of these 26 players, ten (all highlighted in red) are no longer with the team, including more than half of the nine player 2007 Draft class. An even more glaring issue: only four of the 26 players (Session Moala, Powers, Collie/Garcon - take your pick for #2 WR) are healthy starters. Out of the entire 26 player group, there are really only a handful of players that you could say are valuable at this point. Jerraud Powers (3rd, 2009) looks like a future Pro Bowler and is already the best cornerback on the team. Austin Collie (4th, 2009) is a perfect fit for this offense. With some more seasoning, Pierre Garcon (6th, 2008) could be a star, and regardless, he was a sixth-round steal out of Mount Union. Pat McAfee (7th, 2009), Jacob Tamme (4th, 2008), and Mike Hart (6th, 2008) have stepped up to the plate when asked to do so.

It's not that the Colts haven't tried to address their offensive and defensive line issues. Ten of the 26 players they drafted in the 2007-09 classes were either offensive or defensive lineman. The problem is that none of them have made any sort of significant impact: Ugoh, Pitcock, Dawson, Pollak, Howard, Justice, Richard, Moala, Taylor, and Thomas. Only one of those (Moala) is a current starter, while the others that are still with the team are low-level backups (Pollak, Dawson, Richard, Thomas), with little-to-no upside. Ugoh, who was cut before the season, was perhaps the biggest bust of the Polian era. The Colts traded their 2008 first round pick to trade into the 2007 second round to select him out of Arkansas. Small injuries (cough laziness cough) cost Ugoh time in games and practice, and judging by how much this offensive line has struggled, the fact that the Colts were willing to cut their losses tells you all you need to know about Ugoh.

It's foolish to ask Bill Polian to hit a home run in every Draft class, but he was pretty darn close from 2003-06. In those Drafts, the Colts selected six future Pro Bowlers (Robert Mathis, Cato June, Dallas Clark, Joseph Addai, Antoine Bethea, Bob Sanders), several top-end starters (Jake Scott, Kelvin Hayden, Marlin Jackson, Charlie Johnson), and a few other somewhat impact players (Jason David, Tyjuan Hagler).

The Colts will go into this offseason needing to do more than just tinker. Their offensive line needs a complete overhaul, and it's time to start restocking the depth at several key positions - most notably in the defensive secondary. With the Colts likely to get a pick in the lower 20's, a position they haven't been in since 2002, this 2011 Draft becomes the most important of the Polian era.

Ignorance is Bliss

After Auburn's blowout win over South Carolina in the SEC Championship Game, they'll play for a National Championship. Also, their quarterback Cam Newton, who accounted for six touchdowns in the game, will likely be the most lopsided Heisman Trophy winner in college football history.

Four days ago, the NCAA could've taken all of that away.

Auburn declared their star quarterback ineligble on Tuesday, and then immediately filed for him to be declared eligible. The NCAA granted their request, but in doing so, went against one of their most important rules.

NCAA Bylaw 12.3.3: "individuals or entities are not allowed to represent a prospective student-athlete for compensation to a school for an athletic scholarship.”

The NCAA cleared Newton because they “couldn’t find sufficient evidence that either Cam, or Auburn, knew of the situation with his father.” Um, that’s great and all, but whether or not Cam Newton had any idea what his father was doing is completely irrelevant. The Bylaw clearly states that no one is allowed to “represent” Cam - but his father did. The NCAA admitted that rules were broken when Cecil Newton and Kenny Rogers (not the pitcher) tried to arrange a pay-for-play system with Mississippi State during Cam’s second recruiting rodeo. So, by keeping Cam Newton eligible, the NCAA essentially ignored their own Bylaw, and in the same breath opened up a very dangerous can of worms.

As has been said all this week by pundits nationally, what is to stop family members/friends/coaches from coming to schools recruiting their children/friends/players with their hands out? Even a player can organize an elaborate pay-for-play scheme, as long as he finds a middle man. All the player has to do is plead ignorance. The worst thing that the NCAA could do is turn around months later and rule Cam Netwon ineligible. That’ll likely mean another flawed National Champion, and the 2nd tarnished Heisman in five years.

Groundhog Day

When going back and looking at past seasons, it seems that the Colts have a "sloppy" game like yesterday's win over Cincinnati every year. Oddly enough, it seems like most of the games have been at home, too.

2010: Colts 23, Bengals (2-7) 17
Early in the game, all the pieces were in place for an Indy romp. The Colts jumped out to a 17-0 lead and were in cruise control early in the second quarter. However, a 42-yard run by Brian Leonard on a punt fake swung the momentum back Cincinnati’s way, and they were in the game throughout. The Colts offense was inefficient as they punted seven times in the game. Five Cincy turnovers were their ultimate undoing, but despite all of that, the Bengals had the ball with under a minute left and a chance to win the game. Back-to-back sacks by Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis ended whatever hope the Bengals had of a comeback.

2009: Colts 18, 49ers (3-3) 14
Oddly enough, Joseph Addai threw the only touchdown pass of this game, as Peyton Manning wasn’t his usual self. You would never be able to tell that #18 was off from his final line: 31-48 for 347 yards, but he missed on a lot of throws that he normally makes. Peyton’s shakiness kept the Niners in the game, as Alex Smith was solid in his first start in two seasons, despite playing behind a struggling offensive line that allowed four sacks.

2008: Colts 10, Browns (4-7) 6
Peyton Manning did complete 15 of his 21 pass attempts, but threw for just 125 yards in the victory. Both defenses dominated the game as there wasn’t an offensive touchdown scored - the only TD in teh game came on a Robert Mathis scoop-and-score off of a Derek Anderson fumble in the fourth quarter. It was the first time since Week One of 2003, coincidentally enough also against Cleveland, that the Colts had failed to score an offensive touchdown in a game.

2007: Colts 13, Chiefs (4-6) 10
Coming off back-to-back losses to New England and San Diego, their first two of the season, the Colts were in desperate need of a victory. Peyton Manning was dreadful (I would argue it was possibly his worst game since pre-2003), leading to a 23.4 halftime QB rating. After another half, he had only bumped that up to an even 50, finishing with a 16-32 day for 163 yards and a pick. The Colts only managed 73 first half yards, but were able to put together a 14-play drive that ate up the final seven minutes of regulation, to set up Adam Vinatieri’s winner from 24 yards out.

2006: Colts 17, Bills (3-6) 16
Peyton Manning was strong in this game, but the Buffalo defense forced mostly short throws as Indy had to dink-and-dunk their way down the field. Peyton finished with a solid line of 27-39, for 236 yards and a score, but the Bills were still in position to take the lead in the fourth. Ryan Lindell missed a 41-yard field goal with just over six minutes left that would’ve given Buffalo the lead. The Colts took over possession, picked up four first downs, and were able to end the game without the Bills getting another chance.

To Dallas Without Dallas

Instead of focusing on the most important four-game stretch of the entire season, the Colts spent most of the bye week dealing with arrests and injuries.

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The good news is that a night in the drunk tank and a one-game suspension will bring punter Pat McAfee back - the same can't be said for Dallas Clark. The Pro Bowl tight end that caught 100 passes last season will miss the rest of 2010 after undergoing wrist surgery. The injury thins out an already-depleted receiving corps, that has dealt with injuries to Pierre Garcon (hamstring), Anthony Gonzlaez (ankle), and Austin Collie (hand) already this year.

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Colts will miss the defensive attention that Clark demands

The Colts love to brag about their "Next Man Up" philosophy, but which next man can replace what Clark brought to the table? Defenses don't have to gameplan and/or adjust for Brody Eldridge. Gijon Robinson doesn't help the Colts dominate the middle of the field. It's doubtful that Jacob Tamme will be a reliable security blanket for Peyton Manning.

Dallas Clark is one of those players that you don't realize his value until he's gone. He's a mismatch for any NFL linebacker. He isn't afraid to go over the middle. If the big play is taken away and the offense has to improvise, Clark plays the role of both dink AND dunk. He's invaluable to the Colts' success.

Now, Indy enters a crucial stretch without Clark (not to mention Collie as well) when their AFC South title hopes, and playoff hopes, could be decided. Even while realitively healthy, the Colts struggled through their first six. What's going to happen with arguably the most important Colt outside of Peyton Manning and Dwight Freeney?

Of course it would be silly to ever count out Peyton Manning, and a Colts team that has won at least 12 games in each season since 2003. But, this latest injury could be the knockout blow for any hopes of getting to the Super Bowl. I just don't see how the Colts get to Dallas without Dallas.

New Kid on the Block

I'm what you would call a traditional sports fan. Though I embarrassingly admit to watching the debut of the XFL, and attending several live WWE events in my lifetime, I mainly stick to the sports that have history.

Mixed martial arts, and more specifcially the UFC, aren't really my thing. Don't get me wrong, I can understand why two guys in a cage with no rules (basically) and a variety of fighting styles meshed into one "anything goes" match is popular. However, it's just never really translated for me. I compare it to horror movies. Some people like being frightened. They pay money to be scared for two hours in a dark theatre. That's not my thing. I get it, it's just not for me.

The UFC is having an event in Indianapolis for the first time on Saturday, and the popularity of the sport is at an all-time high. We even had Chris "Lights Out" Lytle on the radio show today to plug it. As much as I may be opposed to following the sport, it may get to a point where I'm forced to.

I haven't given the UFC much of a chance. But, if the attendance and PPV numbers are true, maybe I should reconsider.

Rocky Start for Irish

After a heart-wrenching 34-31 loss to rival Michigan State, Notre Dame already finds themsevles at a crossroads for the 2010 season. While most expectations were lukewarm for the Irish, this season can quickly spiral out of control for Brian Kelly in Year #1.

At 1-2, the schedule doesn't give Notre Dame too many favors over the next three weeks with games against Stanford, at Boston College, and Pittsburgh. Breaking down the rest of the schedule, seven wins could be the best-case scenario for Notre Dame.

Even having dropped two out of three to Navy, you have to expect Notre Dame to beat the Midshipmen when the teams meet later this season. Tulsa, Western Michigan, and Army, will all be easy victories barring catastrophe. There are five wins. The rest of the schedule is anyone's guess. Notre Dame will have to go at least 1-4 against Stanford, at Boston College, Pittsburgh, Utah, and at USC. That should be do-able to get bowl eligible. However, 2-3 over those five games may be asking too much.

I promosted myself that I wouldn't judge Brian Kelly on wins and losses in his first year. That was already done with Tyrone Willingham (10-3) and Charlie Weis (9-3) and we all know how those eras ended up. But, with a 1-5 start a realistic possibility, the margin for error is shrinking.

Predicting the 2010 Colts

To me, predicting stuff is the worst part about being a talking head. It's really a lose-lose situation because regardless of what picks you actually get right, chances are you're going to get at least 75% of them wrong. The good news is that lately with the Colts, it's been fairly easy to get things right.

I broke their schedule into three categories: Gimmie games, Probable wins, Probable losses.

GIMMIE GAMES
at Denver - though they trail the all-time series 11-7, the Colts have dominated the Broncos in their matchups recently, winning the regular season meetings in 2007 and last year, and routing Denver in their two playoff meetings in 2003 and 2004.

at Jacksonville, Jacksonville - I'm predicting the Jaguars to finish in last place and last place teams rarely beat the Colts. I'm actually more confident with the Colts playing the Jaguars in Jacksonville than playing them in Indy. The Colts haven't lost in Florida since the 275 rushing yard debacle in 2006.

Kansas City - they'll be better, but this team isn't close to being ready to hanging around with the NFL's elite.

at Washington - I don't care how bad the Redskins are, it's always tough to go to the East Coast and play in front of 90,000 rabid fans. They finally have a quarterback and a coach this year, but not much else.

at Oakland - the Raiders will be better, but is this team worlds different from the '07 squad that the Colts beat?

PROBABLE WINS
NY Giants - I think the Giants will be somewhere in the 8-8, 9-7 range this year. They're a solid team that can cause the Colts come problems, but their defense was woeful last season and couldn't have drastically improved overnight.

at Houston, Houston - the Colts have won 15 of the 16 all-time meetings. In this series, the Colts have either a) found a way to win or b) watched the Texans implode upon themselves.I keep hearing that this is the Texans' year, but that's what we've heard the last three years. I'll believe it when I see it.

Cincinnati - can someone tell me the last time the Colts lost a game that actually counted to the Bengals? Anyone? I didn't think so.

San Diego - this team looks like they're taking a step back this season. They still have Phillip Rivers who is always a threat, but there defense isn't what it was 2-3 years ago.

at Tennessee - I really struggled calling this game a "probable win". Since the AFC South was formed, Nashville has by far been the toughest division road game for the Colts. Maybe Vince Young reverts to his 2009 form. Maybe Vince Young reverts to his 2007 form. I'm leaning towards the latter.

PROBABLE LOSSES
at Philadelphia - with new quarterback Kevin Kolb, it's tough to determine what the Eagles will do this year. One thing that is different about this team is that they have playmakers on the offensive side of the ball, something that they never surrounded Donovan McNabb with (outside of Brian Westbrook). Tough atmosphere, tough team, tough task.

at New England - I still think this team has a good run in them. The defense is a problem, but the offense should still be elite. They moved the ball at will against the Colts last season before self-destructing late.

Dallas - this is likely going to be the best all-around team that the Colts face this season. Being at home will help, but something about DeMarcus Ware going up against that porous Colts' O-Line worries me.

Tennessee - it's Week 17, duh.

Final Schultz's Shots prediction: 12-4, AFC South Champs

Week 1 Recap

Every week of the college football season, we'll hit the main bullet points for Indiana, Notre Dame, and Purdue.

Brian Kelly's debut: while Saturday may not have been the offensive explosion that Kelly was used to at Cincinnati, it was a smart, efficient, and fitting start to his coaching tenure. For the first time in a long time, the Irish played terrific fundamental football with solid tackling and some spectacular Special Teams' play. Considering Notre Dame was four yards away from turning this game into a 27-3 blowout, and then weathered a furious Purdue comeback in the fourth, there are reasons for optimism going forward.

MARVElous: perhaps the only debut that was just as highly-anticipated as Brian Kelly's was that of Miami transfer Robert Marve for the Boilers. Playing in his first game in nearly two years, Marve showed some rust at times, but overall showed why he earned so much praise in the offseason. The final line - 31-42, 220 yards, 2 TD - isn't jaw-dropping, but Marve was able to show-off his powerful arm and deceptive speed. Though the two interceptions were largely the fault off defensive pressure (ND had four sacks on the day), both were crucial because they came in Notre Dame territory. The flip into the endzone on the touchdown run was not only in poor taste (Still trailing by eight? On the road? Seriously?), but it gave Notre Dame a chance to change the field position after their next possession, and pin Purdue deep into their own territory.

Cupcakes, please: say what you want about IU's pillowy-soft non-league schedule, but for the Hoosiers a win is a win (is a win). Considering their struggles in year's past against teams such as Nicholls State and Eastern Kentucky, Indiana was far more impressive in their 51-17 drubbing of FCS-team Towson. Ben Chappell (2 TD, 0 INT) was his usual solid self, while Darius Willis (14/102) continued to show promise. The score may be a bit misleading, as the Hoosiers were actually outgained by Towson 392-360. The defense is still a work in progress, but IU will have a bye week before their 2nd game against Western Kentucky to iron some things out.

Questioning Reggie

Earlier this week, Bob Kravitz brought up a topic that I hadn't thought much about: Reggie Miller's Hall-of-Fame candidacy. Given his playoff heroics, and his status as the 14th All-Time leading scorer in NBA history, I figured that he was a lock. I might've been wrong.

For fun, judge these two players:

PLAYER A
18.2 career ppg (20.6 career playoff ppg)
3.0 rpg, 3.0 apg, 1.1 apg
5-time NBA All-Star (once as a starter)
3-time All-NBA (3rd Team each time)
Finished in the MVP voting twice (13th in 2000, 16th in 1998)
Averaged 24 ppg or better game in one season
NBA All-Time leader in 3-pointers made and attemped

PLAYER B
21.5 career ppg (28.5 career playoff ppg)
6.0 rpg, 4.7 apg, 1.3 spg
7-time NBA All-Star (six starts)
Seven-time All-NBA (2X 1st Team, 3X 2nd Team, 2X 3rd Team)
Finished in the MVP voting Top 8 six times (twice finished 4th)
Averaged 24 ppg or better in seven seasons
Two NBA scoring titles

Player A is Reggie Miller. Player B is Tracy McGrady.

What the above shows is that a player's contributions have to go beyond what a sheet of paper says. Given what he did for the Pacers franchise. and his countless clutch playoff moments, I still think Reggie Miller is a Hall-of-Famer. I think most of the voters will agree with me.

Stupid X 3

Two weeks ago, the Pacers pulled off a terrific trade, swapping Troy Murphy's expiring contract for veteran James Posey and a possible franchise point guard in Darren Collison. For the first time in a long time, things were looking pretty rosy for the Blue and Gold.

Days later, word leaked out about Lance Stephenson's altercation with his girlfriend with allegedly got way too physical. Now, a little over a week after that incident, Brandon Rush has been suspended for failing his third drug test.

Oh fate, why must thou spite thee?

The police blotter and the Indiana Pacers have been like chocolate and peanut butter for the better part of six years. We don't need to rehash all of the incidents during that time, but the fact that some Pacers are returning to their old ways has fans worried.

I don't even want to talk about Stephenson right now. It sounds really serious, and I'm sure we'll cross that bridge once we get there. But, as far as Rush is concerned, can you really be that stupid? He flunked his third drug test by coming up positive for marijuana.

In case you didn't know, the NBA doesn't go public with failed drug tests until it happens for a third time. The league doesn't even tell the team that their own player has failed a drug test until then.

Rush clearly has some talent, but he's looked lazy, disinterested, and immature during his two-year stint in Indiana. Think about the people that you know that smoke marijuana. Lazy, disinterested, immature - chances are that person employs all three of those characteristics. What especially troubles me about this incident is that by failing three times, Rush is clearly showing that he prioritizes weed higher than improvement on the basketball court. Why else would he risk a third failed test?

I doubt Rush will be straight-out released, but clearly the 2010-11 season is make-it-or-break-it time for his career. Considering the investment that Bird & Co. have put in him, I hope he doesn't let his opportunity go up in smoke. (Thank you, tip your waitresses!)

Frauds?

As you might've heard already, Colin Cowherd of ESPN Radio called out the Reds during Thursday's show. He labeled Cincinnati as "frauds" because of their hollow 70-51 record which has mostly been aided by beating up on sub .500 teams.

Looking beneath the surface, Cowherd has a point.

The Reds entered Friday's action with a 49-23 record against teams below .500, and that includes a sparkling 29-11 mark against the Brewers, Cubs, Astros, and Pirates. On the flip side of that, Cincinnati is just 21-28 against teams with winning records, which includes a 5-10 showing against the Cardinals this year.

All of that being said, Cincinnati doesn't employ many of the other characteristics of a team that should be labeled as a fraud. Frauds generally don't bounce back from tough stretches, yet the Reds have done exactly that several times this season. They were swept in Seattle in June when they mustered just one run in the three game set. They responded by winning their next five games. After a four-game sweep in Philadelphia which included back-to-back 1-0 losses before the All-Star Break, the Reds began the second-half by winning four of five. What could've been a crippling sweep last week to the rival Cardinals, was quickly offset by Cincinnati's current six-game win streak. Fraud teams fold under the first sign of adversity (see: 2009 Red Sox, 2008 Cubs, 2007 Rockies, and 2006 Yankees).

Also, the Reds are dominating almost every major offensive category in the National League:
Batting Average: .272 (1st)
Runs: 593 (1st)
Hits: 1,122 (1st)
Home Runs: 135 (3rd)
RBI: 572 (1st)
OBP: .338 (2nd)
SLG: .435 (1st)

As much as we like to hype the Red Sox-Yankees head-to-head matchups, the AL East crown depends on how those teams do against Baltimore and Toronto. Would I like to see the Reds play better against top-flight competition? Absolutely. But, I don't think they should make any apologies for beating the teams they're supposed to beat.

How Far They've Come

The trade for Darren Collison is another move forward in what has been a three-year rebuilding plan. Has the progress been slow? Yes, but it's there. If you need any indication to how Larry Bird and David Morway are doing, take a look at the current Pacers' situation compared to almost three years ago:

2010-11 Depth Chart
PG Darren Collison, TJ Ford, Lance Stephenson, AJ Price
SG Brandon Rush, James Posey, Dahntay Jones
SF Danny Granger, Paul George, Mike Dunleavy
PF Tyler Hansbrough, Jeff Foster, Josh McRoberts
C Roy Hibbert, Solomon Jones, Magnum Rolle

2007-08 Depth Chart
PG Jamaal Tinsley, Flip Murray, Travis Diener
SG Mike Dunleavy, Marquis Daniels, Kareem Rush
SF Danny Granger, Steven Graham, Shawne Williams
PF Troy Murphy, Ike Diogu
C Jeff Foster, David Harrison

Also take into account that before the start of the 2007-08 season, Murphy still had four years/$44M left on his deal, Dunleavy had four years/$40M left, and Tinsley had three years/$21M left. This season, Dunleavy is entering the final year of his deal ($10.5M), as are Ford ($8.5M), and Foster ($6.6M) - that's over $25 million coming off the books. Meanwhile, Danny Granger is the only Pacer signed past 2011-12 season.

Baby steps...

Double-Standard?

Over the past decade, as the Colts have risen to prominence and the Pacers have fallen victim to sub-.500 seasons and off-court issues, the dynamic in the city of Indianapolis has changed. Just ten years ago in 2000, this was still clearly a Pacers' town, and the Colts were still struggling to fill the tiny RCA Dome. The Indy sports-scene has done a complete 180 since.

It's not just the city's attitude towards the teams, but their attitude towards the individual players.

A perfect example of this is John Gill. Who, you ask? Gill is a low-level reserve defensive tackle, who recorded all of nine sacks last season, mostly during garbage time of the team's Week 16 loss to the Jets. He was arrested after being found passed out in a ditch drunk. He was charged with public intoxication, but that was later dropped (for no apparent reason).

I went on the IndyStar message boards today assuming that most Colts' fans would be talking about the strong message the team needed to send to the young reserve. Instead, what I read made my jaw hit the floor...

"OMG, a 20 something football lineman drinking? Say it ain't so!"

"Just because he was found intoxicated doesn't mean he is an alcoholic. He might have been on some type of medication that didn't mix well with the alcohol that could have caused this to happen. At least he wasn't driving."

"Wow! One drunken night out, no charges filed, nobody hurt, and all of a sudden the guy has to give up a whole year from his career and attend rehab?! A bit drastic!"

What people didn't mention was what possibly drove a guy on the cut-line to choose to get hammered drunk on the team's only off day of Training Camp? "Hammered" isn't even the right word. Being drunk enough to pass out in a ditch and (excuse my language) piss yourself in the process is way past a simple night on the town. People do stupid things - I get that. But what I don't get is when a person does something so idiotic that it's totally inexplicable.

Judging from the reactions of fans in this city over Pacers' players scrapes with the law, I can assure you that they would've been less forgiving had Gill donned the Blue and Gold. The comments section would be littered with references to "thugs", and how the entire team should either a) be thrown in jail, or b) move to a different city.

So, it's hands-across-Indianapolis for a 4th string defensive tackle, while Jermaine O'Neal is crucified for defending himself during the melee in Detroit.

What a difference a decade makes.

Not Learning from Mistakes

In a move that can only be described as "interesting", if not borderline-delusional, the Knicks are bringing Isiah Thomas back to the organization.

The wounds still haven't healed from Thomas' disastrous run as President/GM of the once proud franchise. After Scott Layden tore out the core of a Knicks' franchise that had been a contender throughout the 1990s, Isiah set the explosives around the foundation and lit the wick. In the aftermath, the Knicks were left to deal with the ridiculous contracts of players like Eddy Curry and Jerome James, while having several of their Lottery picks hastily traded away to stop the bleeding.
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To be fair to Thomas, he has shown an eye for scouting talent. This is the same person that drafted Tracy McGrady, Trevor Ariza (in the 2nd round), and David Lee 30th overall. However, there have been widespread rumors that Isiah could regain his throne should current GM Donnie Walsh step away from basketball after his contract expires in 2011.

If Isiah is just coming back as a consultant - fine. However, this is a terrible PR move for the Knicks who have been working for almost 36 months to dodge the label of "laughingstock" that they've earned thanks to a decade of futility.

Welcome Back, Slacker!

It dawned on me today that due to the craziness of the past few weeks, I haven't updated the blog. My apologies.

I was away for my sister's wedding in Connecticut, and have been hustling to put the pieces in place for the show for the upcoming football season.

I'll be back tomorrow with some Colts' talk.

CIB Caves for Pacers

The Pacers are staying in Indianapolis.

Such a proclamation really isn't that big of a deal, considering that the Blue and Gold were never a realistic threat to leave in the immediate future. That's what makes the franchise's $33.5 million deal with the CIB that much more puzzling.

I couldn't help but feel that the CIB were like parents caving into their unruly 16-year old. If your kid threatens to run away, you call their bluff. In this instance, the kid said he was leaving and the parents decided to buy him a $150,000 Lexus.

Where exactly were the Pacers going to go?

The economy is still recovering from the crash two years ago. Markets with already-existing NBA teams like Memphis and Charlotte are struggling. The Pacers can say whatever they want about having "numerous sutiors" - I'd love to see who (and where). My point is: where was the immediate threat? Why the rush to bend over backwards to Pacers instead of playing a little hardball?

I think we'd all agree that retaining the Pacers is a good thing for the city of Indianapolis. It helps raise the overall profile of the city, and continues the quest to become of the premiere sports destinations in America. If a city isn't strong enough to support their own NBA team, why would Super Bowls, Final Fours, and World Cups come here?

All of that being said, just rolling over for Herb Simon & Co. was not the way to go. $10 million per over the next three years, plus footing the entire bill of capital improvements is a bigger rob job than Darko's $20 million extension. The CIB should've dug their heels in and come to a reasonable agreement. $5 million per year would've covered about one-third of the annual operating cost of Conseco Fieldhouse. Let Simon dig into his deep pockets for the rest.

$33.5 million? That's too much, Bob.

My biggest problem is the lack of responsibility on the part of the Pacers. Instead of saying "please help", it's "we need this and we need that, or we're gone". It's not the CIB's fault that the franchise took onTroy Murphy and Mike Dunleavy and the hefty contracts that came with them from Golden State in 2007. It's not Indianapolis' fault that the Blue and Gold can't put a product on the floor that consistently attracts more than 10,000 fans per home game. It's certainly not the taxpayers fault that Jamaal Tinsley was paid $7 million to sit on his keister.

I hate to think glass half-empty, but there's nothing stopping the Pacers from coming back to the with their hands out at the end of the 2012-13 season. I hope the CIB and the city of Indianapolis drive a tougher bargain next time around.

Cons & Cons

LeBron's DECISION (caps for emphasis) is about an hour away, and I, like all of you, am still guessing as to where he will land. When projecting something like this, I've always found that the true answer lies in which option has the least significant cons as opposed to the most significant pros. Since I'm up against the clock, here's an abbreviated version of all of the cons from LeBron's possible destinations:

Cleveland
1) They've tried to build a contender around him, and have failed to do so. Despite having the best record in the East the past two years, the Cavs have flamed-out spectacularly in each of the last two postseasons. 2) They have zero cap flexibility and are tied into a lot of long-term contracts. They have attractive trade options, but working sign-and-trades is a lot more complicated than just throwing $100M in someones face. 3) It's Cleveland. Comparing Cleveland to Miami, Chicago, and New York is like comparing a hot dog from a street vendor to filets at St. Elmo's, Shula's, and Ruth Chris. Sure, it's home, but he can maximize his earning potential elsewhere.

Chicago
1) You're stepping into Michael Jordan's shadow - a shadow that will never fully go away. Six rings is asking a whole lot. 2) The whole "LeBron needs a point guard" belief is a myth. He needs to have the ball in his hands. I think he cancels out what Derrick Rose (running the offense) does best by putting him on that team. 3) You're joining a team with a brand-new and therefore unproven head coach in Tom Thibodeau. Is that a risk LeBron is willing to take?

New York
1) LeBron + Amar'e Stoudemire + .....? Danilo Gallinari? Toney Douglas? The Knicks aren't an instant Championship favorite like Miami and Chicago would be. 2) Knicks' fans would literally flip out with LeBron chose to come to New York, but they wouldn't be star-struck forever. Eventually fans would come to expect things (i.e. multiple Championships), which may make the latter years a struggle. 3) The Knicks do have Eddy Curry's expiring contract coming off the books next year, but they're already lost their 2012 First Round pick. Gallinari is the only young piece with All-Star potential, as the ceilings of Douglas and Wilson Chandler are pretty low.

Miami
1) LeBron is having his own one-hour primetime TV special to announce his decision, and you think this is a guy that wants to go to Miami where he'll have to fight for the spotlight with Dwyane Wade? 2) The LeBron-Wade-Bosh trio sounds great on paper, but how would this really work? Remember the embarrassing Olympic (2004) and World Championships (2002) teams? The problem with those teams was that everyone was trying to get theirs. The same could result here. 3) Miami is a complete disaster of a sports town. I'm convinced there are more Knicks/Mets fans in that town than Heat/Marlins. He won't be beloved there like he likely would be in Cleveland, New York, and Chicago.

All in all, I think the Miami reports today, and the Knicks reports last night, were all smoke-screens. I think you'll see LeBron decide to stay in Cleveland, because it's the situation that makes most sense.

Happy LeBronakah!

With July 1, 2010 finally here, I have rundown a list of the top available free agents in this year's star-studded class (age in parenthesis):

1) LeBron James (25)
Why? Because of this.

2) Dwyane Wade (28)
Wade, like Dirk, is probably only testing the waters and seeing what Miami will do with their cap room. I’d expect him to be back as long as they are somewhat aggressive.

3) Dirk Nowitzki (32)
I’d be shocked if Dirk didn’t stay in Dallas, considering they could give him a four-year deal with a no-trade clause and over $95 million if he stayed. He's a natural fit for what the Mavs like to do (insert "early playoff exit" joke here).

4) Chris Bosh (26)
Had career-highs in scoring and rebounding last season and could be put in a good situation. He’s an ideal #2, and will probably wait to see if one of the other big dominos fall first.

5) Amare Stoudemire (27)
Not sure about his attitude at all times, and he doesn’t care much to rebound the basketball but he immediately makes any offense better.

6) Rudy Gay (23)
Gay is the youngest, and therefore still has by far the most potential of anyone on this list. However, he is looking for a max deal, and I’m not sure who is going to give that.

7) Joe Johnson (29)
There’s no question he can score, and he’s also very durable, but the performance in the playoffs has scared me off. Seems like the kind of guy that wouldn’t be happy as a #2.

8) Carlos Boozer (28)
Had a big, and most importantly healthy, season in 2009-10 going for 19.5 ppg and 11.2 rpg. Is the B-est of B-level players, but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

9) David Lee (27)
His numbers (20.2 ppg, 11.7 rpg) wow you, but his defense does not. Is Lee just another one of those players artificially inflated by playing in Mike D’Antoni’s system?

10) Paul Pierce (32)
Pierce is still an effective player, but it’s tough to even call him a #2 anymore. At 32, he has a lot of tread on the tires, and is athletically-limited

Honorable mention: Ray Allen, John Salmons, Luis Scola, Josh Howard

Paul George reaction

It only took ten selections for the first big suprise of Thursday's NBA Draft - the Pacers' selection of Paul George. While even avid college basketball fans may not have ever watched George star at Fresno State for two seasons, his potential is unmistakeable once you see him play.

His most common NBA comparison is Danny Granger, and you can see a lot of DG in his game. He's long, athletic, and he can score, but will need some polish to become a complete player. Because of the Granger comparisons, some Pacers' fans have panned the pick, but the Blue and Gold need talented players - regardless of their position.

George immediately becomes Granger's backup, and may eventually push for a starting spot alongside Granger if Brandon Rush continues to struggle.

What's the Scenario?

With the NBA Draft just a few days away, the Pacers find themselves in an interesting spot. With rumored trades involving Jonny Flynn and Minnesota as well as Oklahoma City, the Blue and Gold aren't short on options. Here are some of the scenarios:

Pacers Draft Scenario #1: Keep the pick, roll with the point guards they already have.
The Pacers really have two options at #10: a big or a wing. Potential wing prospects include: Avery Bradley (Texas), Gordon Hayward (Butler), Xavier Henry (Kansas), and James Anderson (Oklahoma).

Pacers Draft Scenario #2: Keep the pick, and draft a point guard with one of the 2nd round selections.
There is no one in the 2nd round that could be an immediate NBA starter. Possible 2nd round options: Terrico White (Miss. State), Willie Warren (Oklahoma), Grevis Vasquez (Maryland), Matt Bouldin (Gonzaga), Sherron Collins (Kansas), and Denis Clemente (Kansas State).

Pacers Draft Scenario #3: Trade down, and if Murphy is included in the deal, draft a power forward.
This is a fantastic draft for bigs. Patrick Patterson (Kentucky), Cole Aldrich (Kansas), Ed Davis (North Carolina), Paul George (Fresno State), Ekpe Udoh (Baylor), Hassan Whiteside (Marshall), and Daniel Orton (Kentucky) all could fall somewhere in the late teens or early 20's.

Pacers Draft Scenario #4: Draft Luke Harangody.
Hey, he played four years, was super productive, and has limited upside - this fits the recent trend of Pacers' First Round picks.

Ultimately, I think the Pacers are going to deal the pick, probably for a starter-caliber point guard. The question is whether or not they'll get a pick in return. It's a shame that in a draft full of NBA-ready forwards, the Pacers biggest needs are in the backcourt.

Rob Job

So, raise your hand if you're tired of officiating controversies...

Just a handful of weeks after Jim Joyce's imperfect gaffe ruined a piece of baseball history, the "human element" has struck the world of sports again. It's been over 48 hours since Koman Coulibaly inexplicably disallowed what would've capped an improbable rally by the Americans in their match against Slovenia.

With Slovenia reeling in the 84th minute, Maurice Edu toed in the soccer equivalent of a walk-off homer, only to have it waved off for an apparent offsides. After surveying the video replays, the call was changed to a foul (think Scottie Pippen on Hubert Davis). Looking more closley at the tape, it was Slovenia that was draping the Americans on that free kick - Michael Bradley was essentially bear-hugged by a defender. In a game where the slightest trip results in a yellow card, the Slovenian players were given free reign like Dale and Antonio Davis jockeying for a rebound.



Sure, the Americans should've never been a position to have to rally against Slovenia, the smallest of the 32 countries participating in the World Cup. However, in the world's biggest sporting event, calls like this are inexcusable. Say what you want about Team USA putting themselves in a bad position with a horrid performance in the first half, but that doesn't change the fact that soccer is a 90-minute game and the Americans won that match in the 84th minute.

There was considerable outcry afterwards, but some of the blow was softened by Algeria's stunning 0-0 draw against England. Team USA still controls their own destiny, but would've been virtually guaranteed a trip to the Round of 16 had Coulibaly done the right thing.

R.I.P. Coach Wooden

I have nothing to add to the recent conversation about the passing of John Wooden. I never met Coach Wooden, but know several who did. All I can say is that I've never heard of anyone say a negative word about John Wooden the person, and that's the best thing you can say about the true essence of the man.

R.I.P to perhaps the greatest product of this great state of Indiana.

Quick Shots: Indy 500

The 94th running of the Indianapolis 500 took place on Sunday, and here are some of my knee-jerk reactions.

Swish: Dario Franchitti, Chip Ganassi
The Scot became just the 17th driver in history to capture multiple Indy 500 titles, after a dominating effort saw him lead 155 of the 200 laps. Say what you want about this being a fuel strategy win - the #10 car was clearly the class of the field. As for team owner Chip Ganassi, he made some history as well, becoming the first team owner to win the Indianapolis and Daytona 500s in the same year. Jamie McMurray took the checkered flag in Florida back in February.

Swish: Andretti Autosport
After an embarassing qualifying performance the weekend before, the Andretti cars came to play on Sunday. Marco Andretti made the podium for the third time in five career starts, coming from 16th to finish 3rd. Tony Kanaan charged through the field after starting dead last to get all the way to 2nd place before running out of fuel and falling to 11th (still not bad for TK). Danica Patrick was a surprise as well. Despite being clearly uncomfortable with her #7 Go Daddy car all month long, she was able to carve out a 6th place finish. Maybe their performance in Indy will give AA a much-needed boost heading into the rest of the season.

Brick: Early TV ratings
Despite a larger crowd, and a bigger buzz around this year's race than the last few editions, the excitement didn't translate to the television ratings. The 2010 Indy 500 ratings were down both locally and nationally, netting just a 3.68 across the country. That was down over four million households from last year. In central Indiana, the 500 earned a 12.2, down from the 14.6 a year ago.

Air Ball: Team Penske
Roger Penske hasn't had too many rough days in Indianapolis, but this was one of his worst. Outside of 1995 when both of his entries in Al Unser Jr. and Emerson Fittipaldi failed to qualify, this may have been their poorest showing to date. Defending champion and favorite Helio Castroneves stalled out in the pits with 55 laps to go, costing him a chance at a victory, and giving him a disappointing 9th place finish. Give Will Power credit for rallying to jump into the top ten (8th), but he was behind the eight-ball all day after being assessed an early penalty for leaving the pits with a fuel pump still attached. The worst performance came from Ryan Briscoe, who hit the wall in Turn 4 hard, and continued his run of bad luck in Indy with a 24th place finish.

Bring a Jacket...

Hopefully this global warming phenomenon warms things up considerably by 2014, or else the NFL is in for a rude awakening. On Tuesday, the league gave the new Meadowlands Stadium in north Jersey Super Bowl XLVIII in four years. After first going to a northern city in Detroit in 2005, followed by a bid to our very own Indianapolis in 2012, the NFL has now thrown all caution to the wind. For those of you that haven't been to the New York area the first week of February, it's absolutely frigid.

According to NY.com, the average temperature in February is 33 1/2 degrees - hey, at least we know it won't snow! Actually, there's a very good chance for snow during Super Bowl XLVII, considering that a record 39 inches fell just this past February.

What I love about the Super Bowl is that it is the most neutral of neutral atmospheres. Generally it's played in a warm climate, so weather is not a factor. It's a corporate atmosphere with a small number of actual fans, meaning that there is no homefield advantage. By rolling the dice for a NY/NJ Super Bowl, the NFL is putting the neutrality of the site at risk. Can you imagine if the Colts (an indoor team) had a rematch against the Bears (a cold-weather team) again? It would give Chicago an unfair advantage. Teams are affected by playing in the cold/snow - there's no such thing as a cold-weather team (i.e. Chicago, Minnesota, either New York squad) struggling in 70 degree weather.

The cons far outweight the pros. Really, the only "pro" I can think of is the fact that it would be pretty cool to see a Super Bowl in the snow, and being played in the world's biggest market (New york), or at a place like Lambeau Field. The cons (weather issues, fan experience, traffic, etc.) could spell disaster for America's greatest sporting event.

Inspecting Interleague Play

The 14th season of Interleague play officially began last night in Major League Baseball, and like any other "tradition", it needs some spicing up.

While I was originally a big fan of Interleague play, I feel that the cons outweigh the pros. If Interleague baseball is going to continue, there are some things that need to be tweaked. However, hoping for constructive changes from Bud Selig is like hoping for Bob Sanders to stay healthy.

Interleague play hasn't been much of a struggle for the AL

Here are some of the issues I have with the current state of Interleague baseball:

1) The novelty has worn off
- even the great rivalries like Yankees/Mets and Cubs/White Sox don't have the same allure that they used to have.

2) The American League has become far too dominant
- the AL has won the season series for six years running, with an alarming 714-546 edge in the past five years.

3) Most of the so-called "rivalry" games are a joke
- does anyone really care about the Ohio Cup (Reds/Indians), Marlins/Rays (Citrus Series), Twins/Brewers, etc.?

4) Scheduling inequities
- due to the designated rivalry, the Cubs get six games against the recently contending White Sox (.500 or better in eight of the last ten seasons, '05 champs) while the Cardinals get six versus the usually dormant Royals (one season over .500 since Interleague play began).

5) The "filler" games
- for every Yankees/Mets series, you have five "nobody cares" matchups like Rays/Astros (Planetary Series), Cubs/Rangers (Sammy Sosa Series), Rockies/Royals (The Ro-Ro Series), and Blue Jays/D’Backs (Do Snakes eat Birds? Series).

My solutions are simple. Kick Houston over to the AL West (where they belong) so you have even five-team divisions in each league. Just like in the NFL, each team plays a division every year that is rotated (i.e. an NL team would play the AL West in 2010, AL Central in 2011, AL East in 2012). You would still get the great games/players coming to your parks, and it would happen more frequently (once every six years) than in football (once every eight years). 15 of your 18 games will be against a specific division, while the other series would be with a designated "rival". For instance, the the Yankees/Mets, White Sox/Cubs, Angels/Dodgers, etc. would still play every year, but only one three-game series (instead of two). The home parks can rotate every other year.

I like Interleague baseball, and I don't necessarily want it to go away. But, the current format is tired and these changes can only help.

Party like it's 2008!

It may be an understatement to say that the NBA Playoffs have been disappointing. Outside of the storylines involving LeBron James in Cleveland, there hasn't been much drama to speak of at all.

To make matters worse, Boston winning back-to-back games in Orlando to take a commanding 2-0 lead, and the Lakers in cruise control, makes it seem inevitable that a 2008 NBA Finals reprise is on the horizon.

No offense to the Lakers-Celtics rivalry - the greatest in basketball history, and one of the top five all-time rivalries in sports - but didn't we just see this movie last year? The names and faces are almost exactly the same. Garnett, Rondo, Piere, Allen, Bryant, Bynum, Odom, and Gasol were all with their respective teams when we saw them battle 24 months ago. Even Doc Rivers and Phil Jackson are still on the sidelines.

What's the storyline between the last two champions in the NBA meeting again? It reminds me of the Bulls-Jazz sequel in '98 - the only reason to tune in was to see Jordan cement his legacy. I know that Magic-Suns wouldn't have piqued the interest of the casual basketball fan, but it would've been nice to mix things up.

It's too bad barely anyone cares about the NHL, because their product has been 100X better this postseason.

Perfectly Solid

After Dallas Braden pitched the 19th perfect game in baseball history, I got to thinking: this should be a great sign of things to come.

Unlike no-hitters, which have been accomplished by everyone from Nolan Ryan (324 career wins) to Bud Smith (7 career wins), perfect games have mostly been hurled by very good-to-great pitchers.

Four Hall-of-Famers have done it - Sandy Koufax, Catfish Hunter, Jim Bunning, and Randy Johnson (yeah, I'm jumping the gun, but it's inevitable). After that quartet, you have several pitchers that have had long and successful careers. Dennis Martinez won 244 other games besides his 1991 perfecto against the Dodgers. David Wells was one of the better lefthanders of his era, going 239-157 over 19 seasons including an afternoon in 1998 when he baffled the Twins. Kenny Rogers also toppled the 200-win plateau, playing for six different teams over nearly two decades. David Cone (perfect game in 1999 vs. Expos) struck out nearly 2,700 batters and won the 1994 Cy Young. Mike Witt (perfect game in 1984 vs. Rangers) won at least 15 games in four straight seasons from 1984-87, and Mark Buehrle (perfect game in 2009 vs. Rays) has played in four All-Star Games and is just entering his prime at 31 years old.

In fact, Don Larsen, who probably threw the most famous perfect game in the 1956 World Series, may be the worst pitcher to ever toss up all zeroes. He was just 81-91 in his career and was the only pitcher in modern baseball history to pitch a perfect game yet not ever play in an All-Star Game. Even Len Barker (perfect game in 1981 vs. Blue Jays) and Tom Browning (perfect game in 1988 vs. Dodgers), made one All-Star appearance each.

What does this mean for Braden? Nothing, as of now. He'll be 27 in August and has only made 53 career starts. While he seems solid, nobody is praising him as a future star. But, his accomplishment is unique because unlike a no-hitter, a perfect game is no fluke. Very good pitchers have made history before, and time will tell is Dallas Braden can stay true to that trend.

All-Ringless All-Stars

Another promising season ended early for one of the NBA's biggest superstars, as Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavericks were upset by the 7th-seeded Spurs in six games.

While most wouldn't argue Nowitzki belongs among the elite tier occupied by LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, and Dwyane Wade, he definitely is at the top of the 2nd tier along with players like Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, and Tim Duncan. What makes Dirk different is that he is such a unique talent - a 7-foot perimeter player that is virtually unguardable. Much like Kevin Garnett, he is one of the few players to revolutionize the NBA with his unprecedented skill-set.

However, despite leading Dallas to ten straight 50+ win seasons, Nowitzki remains without a ring. The question is does Dirk Nowitzki belong on the starting five of the greatest players to never win an NBA Championship?

The Candidates (no, not like "LOST")
Point guard: This is an unbelievably deep and talented group of Championship-less players. Most immediately think of Utah's John Stockton, who despite holding the all-time assists record by over 5,000 (15,806 total), never found himself in the winner's circle. Jason Kidd, arguably the most complete point guard of all-time, is without a ring as well. Two-time MVP Steve Nash, four-time scoring champ Allen Iverson (26.7 ppg career), and the revolutionary Pete Maravich also find themselves on the list.

Shooting guard: Nearly all of the great shooting guards in NBA history (Jordan, West, Bryant, etc.) have won multiple Championships. Even second-tier players like Joe Dumars, Ray Allen, and Earl Monroe won at least one title. Headlining the list is George Gervin. The Iceman had a deadly finger roll which he used to become one of the most prolific scorers in NBA history, averaging over 27 ppg from 1977-82. Other ring-less SGs include Reggie Miller, who was never surrounded by a Championship-caliber supporting cast in his 18 seasons in Indiana. Dave Bing was waived by Washington months before their only Championship in 1978. After jumping from the ABA, Hall-of-Famer David Thompson spent his career with mediocre Denver and Seattle teams.

Small forward: Knowing that Elgin Baylor spent his entire Hall-of-Fame career with the Lakers, most people probably assume that he's won multiple NBA Championships - that unfortunately is not the case. Baylor went an astonishing 0-for-8 in his NBA Finals appearances, seven of those setbacks coming to Bill Russell's Boston Celtics. One of the more underrated players in NBA history, Dominique Wilkins never got a chance to play in the NBA Finals. However, he was one of the best players in the NBA from the mid-1980's to mid-90's, and is ninth on the league's all-time scoring list. Original Dream Teamer Chris Mullin also went his entire career without a title, despite playing with the memorable Run TMC trio (with Mitch Richmond and Tim Hardaway) during his prime in Golden State. Bernard King's potential was derailed by a crushing knee injury in the middle of his prime, and Grant Hill never got a great opportunity due to injury issues of his own.

Power forward: Like the point guard spot, this is another list of fantastic players. Karl Malone, the NBA's 2nd leading all-time scorer, never won a Championship. Neither did Charles Barkley, who at just 6'6, did things at the forward position that were unprecedented. This is also where you would categorize Dirk Nowitzki, and even a guy like Shawn Kemp warrants a mention.

Center: There's Patrick Ewing, and then there's everybody else. This is one of the few no-brainers on the list, and I'm not just saying that because I'm a Knicks-homer. Bob Lanier is one of the only other Hall-of-Famers on this list, and like Ewing, rarely had a strong supporting cast. Lanier played on some contending Bucks' teams in the early 80's, but at that point was in the twilight of his career. Artis Gilmore would make this list, but he spent most of his early years in the ABA (where he did win a championship with the Kentucky Colonels in 1975).

The Starting Five
PG Jason Kidd
This is just a personal preference and you could put just about anybody here. Kidd was a five-time All-NBA First Team selection, and made the All-Defensive Team nine times. He also made the NBA Finals twice (with the Nets of all teams!), something that only John Stockton was able to match on the list. Though Kidd played on some great Nets' teams in the early 2000s, he never played alongside a player as great as Karl Malone. That's why he gets the nod over Stockton.

SG George Gervin
Nothing against Reggie, but he only made five All-Star Games, while Gervin won FOUR scoring titles. Gervin also matched Reggie's postseason heroics, averaging a whopping 27.9 ppg in 57 career NBA Playoff games.

SF Elgin Baylor
The 10-time All-NBA First Team selection is considered the greatest player to never win an NBA Championship, and it's a tough point to argue. Had his career not collided with Bill Russell's, he would've had a ring for every finger on one hand, if not more. No offense to 'Nique or Mullin, but this isn't even up for debate.

PF Charles Barkley
You can certainly argue Malone because of his numbers, but from a pure talent standpoint, I don't believe there's much debate that Barkley was the superior player. While Malone was an all-time great in his own right, I never felt that he was as dominant as Barkley was.

C Patrick Ewing
Because I'm a homer. Duh.

Final Draft Thoughts

The NFL Draft has come and gone, and the Colts addressed several needs with their incoming group. Here are a couple of my thoughts on the incoming class:

Huuuuuughes: The TCU pass-rusher looks like a classic example of a Colts' steal. Bigger (Jason Pierre-Paul), stronger (Brandon Graham), and more athletic (Derrick Morgan) ends were taken in front of Hughes, but none of them had the production that he had during his college career. At 6'2, 260, the speedster seems to be a great fit as the third defensive end.

Only one offensive lineman drafted: I'm surprised that there was only one OL taken and it wasn’t even a tackle. This is starting to make me believe that Charlie Johnson will not be switching to guard. Most of this depends on how free agent acquistions Andy Alleman and Adam Terry perform in Camp.

Staying big on the O-Line: Jacques McClendon is massive (6’3, 324) for a guard. Given his selection, the Colts have officially added lineman that are 304 (Alleman), 324, and 335 (Terry) pounds.

Finally, a return man!: Not only does the addition of Ray Fisher show the Colts are getting serious about their return game, they also signed UDFA Brandon James of Florida. Fisher led the nation in kick return average (37.3 ypr, also a Big Ten record) while James set four SEC records during his time as a return threat for the Gators.

Defense depth: With as strong as the offense is currently constructed, the Colts really addressed their defensive depth chart. Kevin Thomas makes up for the losses of Jackson and Jennings at CB, Pat Angerer and Kavell Conner fill out the two-deep at LB, Hughes and Ricardo Matthews continue to shore up the depth at the D-Line.

Colts 2010 Draft Class: TCU DE Jerry Hughes (6’2, 260), Iowa LB Pat Angerer (6’1, 235), USC CB Kevin Thomas (6’1, 185), Tennessee G Jacques McClendon (6’3, 324), Oklahoma TE Brody Eldridge (6’5, 265), Cincinnati DL Ricardo Matthews (6’3, 294), Clemson LB Kavell Conner (6’1, 225), Indiana KR Ray Fisher (5’9, 185).

My Only Friend, The End

In what was once a Pacers-crazy town here in Indianapolis, the 2009-10 season went out with a whimper. It was almost fitting that the final loss came to a dreadful Washington team - a solemn reminder of just how far this Pacers franchise has fallen.

Overall, the Blue and Gold suffered their worst record (32-50) in over twenty years, and missed the playoffs for a fourth straight season, the first time they've accomplished that feat since the 1982-86 seasons.

In what's become an annual ritual, team president Larry Bird held a season-wrapping press conference discussing his thoughts on another failed season. Besides backing head coach Jim O'Brien and saying the rebuilding plan was "on target", Larry Legend piqued my interest with this comment:

"The point guard position is one that we're going to look very hard at. It all starts with the point guard."

I would say something snide like "thanks Captain Obvious!" but that wouldn't be fair to Captain or even Lieutenant Obvious. Not to sound like a know-it-all, but I pleaded with the Pacers to address the point guard position in last year's NBA Draft, which had one of the deepest PG classes in recent memory. This fact may be depressing, but take into consideration the point guards that the Pacers passed up last year to draft Tyler Hansbrough at #13 overall:

#17 – Jrue Holiday, Sixers (8.0 ppg, 3.8 apg in 24 mpg)
#18 – Ty Lawson, Nuggets (8.3 ppg, 3.1 apg in 20 mpg)
#19 – Jeff Teague, Hawks (3.2 ppg, 1.7 apg in 10 mpg)
#20 – Eric Maynor, Jazz/Thunder (4.7 ppg, 3.3 apg in 15 mpg)
#21 – Darren Collison, Hornets (12.4 ppg, 5.7 apg in 28 mpg)

I would take any one of those five players over Hansbrough in a heartbeat, and it's not just because of Psycho T's mutant ear infection. T.J. Ford, for lack of a better word, is bad. We've known that for years. He's lost his starting job for every team he's ever played for. Earl Watson, while productive, is what he is: a veteran that is a backup on any halfway decent NBA team. While I like the potential of 2nd round pick A.J. Price, he's still at least another season or two away from being an NBA starter.

The Pacers are really behind the eight-ball this summer because they a) aren't shedding any money, and b) have another middling Lottery pick (10th overall barring a ping-pong ball miracle). Also, this Draft is big heavy, and point guard light.

The team you saw this year, will basically be the team you see next year. The only thing the Pacers are "on target' for is another 30-35 win season.

We'll reconvene in 2011.

For Perception's Sake

Has anyone had a more trying first few years on the job than Roger Goodell? In a seemingly unending cycle of player incidents, it is once again decision-time for the NFL's head honcho.

Georgia authorities said on Monday that they would not pursue sexual assault charges against Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger, but that doesn't mean he's off the hook with the league. In the past (most notably with Pacman Jones), Goodell has handed out suspensions to players regardless of whether they were charged with a crime.

No one is going to argue that Roethlisberger hasn't sullied the image of the NFL, along with his own. Though he isn't going to be charged, should this 2nd scrape with the law cost him some game time?

A suspension for Roethlisberger is warranted for two major reasons:

1) To send a message to Ben that he needs to stop putting himself in these kind of situations.

2) To dispell the belief among NFL fans that there is a double-standard when it comes to race.

I don't think Goodell has unfairly punished minority players, but there's no question there's a perception out there that he has. Throwing Michael Vick into the fire while letting Roethlisberger walk would make plenty of people question Goodell's integrity. I don't think Goodell is racist, nor do I think he was unfair with his punishments of players like Vick and Jones. However, perception is what matters - and Goodell has to do everything he can to guard against a negative labeling from NFL fans and players.

Stevens Returns

Note: I know I had promised an NCAA Tournament wrap-up post, but I don't feel like I can add anything to what's already been said. It was a terrific run for Butler, and overall was probably the most entertaining Tournament since the field expanded in 1985.

Brad Stevens will be back, at least for next year.

Stevens and Butler agreed to a 12-year contract extension, which was announced late this afternoon. The extension means that for this summer the overtures from BCS teams will be ignored. However, the rumors about Stevens' future will never fully go away, regardless of whatever contract he signs or what is said publicly.

Much like Mark Few at Gonzaga, as long as Stevens keeps winning, his name will come up in the conversation of every big school coaching vacancy.

On the bright side, Brad Stevens will definitely be back at Butler next season. That in itself is crucial because the program needs Stevens there to carry the momentum from an improbable run to the National Championship game, and take advantage on the recruiting trail. However, what he does after next season is anybody's guess.

In the college coaching ranks today, contracts aren't worth the paper they're printed on. Extensions don't signify that any coach will stay - their only purpose is to boost the monetary amount of the buyout that a BCS-level team will have to pay.

Such is life for mid-major programs, but we're happy Brad Stevens didn't jump at the first opportunity.

STP and Final Four picks

I hit the free STP show downtown last night to ring-in the Final Four festivities. While it was still pretty awesome, it was nothing like this:

A clearly obliterated sleepy Scott Weiland rambled on between songs about picking up his USA Today, putting his money on STP (instead of Butler, MSU, Duke, or West Va), and called the record-warm weather "glorious".

Final Four picks...
Butler 64, Michigan State 62
Before you accuse me of picking with my heart instead of my head, remember that the Dawgs are actually a 1.5-point favorite according to Vegas. Butler has completely shutdown two much stronger offenses in Syracuse and Kansas State over the past week, and the Spartans will likely struggle to score. One thing that should make Butler fans nervous is the fact that Michigan State is much more physical than any team Butler has faced in the Tournament so far. Butler gives the hometown fans a win to continue this run.

West Virginia 74, Duke 67
I'm curious as to why Duke is considered the National Championship favorite. West Virginia could've easily been a #1 seed, and they dismantled the team that a lot of people thought was going to walk away with the title (Kentucky) just a week ago. Duke's size is certainly an advantage, but I don't envision the Mountaineers letting them have their way on the offensive glass like they did against both Purdue and Baylor. West Virginia's offense wakes up for the first time this Tournament and they slip into Monday night's marquee matchup.

No "Hickory" Here

With Butler making a surprise run to the Final Four, the comparisons to Hoosiers and Cinderella labels were to be expected. However, for the basketball fans of Indianapolis that have watched this program over the past four years, they know that this Butler program isn't your average Tourney darling. Here are five reasons why Butler shouldn't be put in the same boat as the George Masons of the past:

1) Pollsters giving props
Butler was ranked #10 in the 2009-10 preseason AP Top 25 poll and #11 in the final regular season poll three weeks ago. They've cracked the top 11 in the rankings in each of the past four seasons with highs of #9 (2006-07), #8 (2007-08), #11 (2008-09), and #10 (2009-10). Only three teams have spent more weeks in the Top 25 over that span: North Carolina, Kansas, and Duke.

2) Marquee wins
Take a look at some of the programs Butler has beaten in the past four seasons: #4 Syracuse (2010), #6 Kansas State (2010), #12 Xavier (2008), #15 Ohio State (2009), #21 Tennessee (2006), #22 Maryland (2007), #24 Gonzaga (2006) - not too shabby. Also, say what you want about the Horizon League, but winning 62 of 70 regular season games against Conference opponents is quite an accomplishment.

3) Record-wise
20-win seasons used to be the mark of excellence in college basketball. But, with the boom in preseason tournaments, 30 wins is considered the new "elite" benchmark. Over the past four seasons, the Bulldogs have averaged 30 wins per season (30-5 overall). Brad Stevens, who is in his third year at the helm, has won 88 of the 102 games (86%) in his short career. If you want to go back even further, Butler has won at least 20 games in 12 of the past 14 seasons, eclipsing the 25-win mark six different times.

4) Making it happen in March
The Final Four may be a new horizon (no pun intended) for Butler, but success in the NCAA Tournament is nothing new. Since 2001, the Dogs are 10-5 in the Tourney, going 5-1 in First Round games (a four-point loss to 8-seed LSU in 2009 the only blemish), taking two trips to the Sweet 16 (2003, 2007), and now the Final Four. Something else worth noting is that Butler has never lost to a lower-seeded team - that's something that Gonzaga has done four times since 2002.

5) Power of Personnel
No offense to A.J. Graves and Avery Sheets, but the overall talent level at Butler is night-and-day compared to what it was just five years ago. Matt Howard was ranked among the Top 100 players nationally by Rivals.com and held offers from Indiana, Purdue, and Xavier among others. Gordon Hayward was coveted by Purdue and Michigan. Shelvin Mack drew attention from Miami (FL) and UAB. Six players on the current Butler roster were rated three-stars or higher by most recruiting services. The Bulldogs don't have to find hidden gems in White River Valley any longer.

Going Mad (again!)

On Monday morning, the bracket that I had filled out that said "KANSAS" all over it found its final resting home - the trash.

Normally, being eliminated from my pool midway through the third day of the Tournament would upset me, but after everything that happened in the first two rounds, I couldn't be happier.

I had lost faith in the NCAA Tournament in the last two years. After two lifeless brackets where all four #1 seeds advanced for the first time to the Final Four (2008), and only one seed lower than a five made the second weekend (2009), four crazy days brought the "madness" back to March:

- The odds-on favorite Kansas, was beaten by Northern Iowa in the most jarring upset since George Mason toppled UConn in 2006.

- Eight double-digit seeds won their opening game, Including a #14 (Ohio), a #13 (Murray State), a #12 (Cornell), and two #11s (Washington, Old Dominion).

- A record-tying five non-BCS teams (Butler, Xavier, Northern Iowa, Saint Mary's and Cornell) advanced to the Sweet 16.

- 25 of the 48 games in the first two rounds were decided by nine points or less.

After all, the Tournament is about the Cinderellas.

It's back!

Instead of gushing over Evan Turner and John Wall, all the water cooler conversation is around Ali Farokhmanesh's ice-water veins, and Omar Samham's swagger. Instead of chalk, and BCS-level heavyweights flexing their muscle, we're talking about how the Missouri Valley Conference and Atlantic-10 teams should get the respect they deserve from the committee.

Kentucky, Syracuse, and Duke all still look strong, and the higher seeds could still reign supreme. But, for four days, the Tournament reminded us why it's the greatest event in American sports.

Breaking Down my Bracket

Gimmie Upset: San Diego State over Tennessee
The Volunteers can beat everyone on any given night as evident by their wins over Kansas and Kentucky this season, but they also lost to USC by 22 and Georgia during SEC play. The Aztecs are an intriguing team led by Steve Fisher (who coached the 1989 National Champion Michigan team) and was two points away from being MWC regular season champ New Mexico three times this season.

Easy Final Four pick: None
Each year there is generally an easy Final Four pick in at least one of the regions. Last year, it was UConn coming out of the West. The two-seed was a grossly overrated Memphis team, the #3 a Missouri team that didn't have the interior weapons to slay the Huskies, and the 4/5 (Purdue, Washington) weren't serious threats. Teams like North Carolina (2005, 2008) and Florida (2007) have also been no-brainers. On the flip side, this year there is no gimmie Final Four pick. Kansas is a team that everyone has (so you're safe picking them), but their region includes Ohio State, Georgetown, Maryland, and Michigan State - a group that has combined for ten Final Fours since 1999.

Tough Final Four pick: Baylor
I have a problem falling in love with teams early in the season and I end up convincing myself that they're legit contenders. This happened with Acie Law's Texas A&M team in 2007, who I actually had in my National Championship Game, as well as the Foye/Ray/Fraser Villanova team in 2006, who I picked to win it all. Both of those teams fell well short of my expectations. The Bears are sort of like a poor man's 2009 UConn team - great frontline depth and size (Thabeet, Adrien, Robinson to Udoh, Lomers, Jones), plus a guard that can take over a game (A.J. Price to LaceDarius Dunn). They could hypothetically have to get by Notre Dame, Villanova, and Duke to get to Indianapolis, which is a steep climb for a team whose best win this season came against Xavier and went 1-3 against Kansas, Kansas State, and Texas A&M combined.

Reach of the Tournament: Utah State
The 4/13, 5/12 groupings get messy a lot of the time, and that's what I expect in the South Region. Purdue is coming off a 30+ point drilling by Minnesota and is without their star player, while Texas A&M is solid but unspectacular. The two mid-majors those teams will face are MAAC Champion Siena (who has won First Round games in each of the past two seasons), and Utah State (one of the final at-large bids). The Aggies are notorious for playing a soft schedule - they've had teams left out of the NCAAs that have won 23, 25, 23, and 24 games - but came a basket away from upsetting Marquette a year ago. They're my sleeper to come out of that group. It's frustrated because this is a grouping that should've gone to Kansas or Kentucky instead of Duke.

Toughest Region to predict: West
Syracuse will be without big man Arinze Onuaku for at least the first two games, maybe more. Looking around the rest of the region, Kansas State is strong, but is in unchartered waters for that program. Pittsburgh rarely (if ever) plays to their seeding, Vanderbilt is the weakest #4, Butler isn't a realistic Final Four team, and Xavier is a bit of an enigma. Some people are hopping on #7 BYU to come out of that group. I picked Syracuse mostly because I didn't feel comfortable hedging my bets on unproven teams (Kansas State) or ones that generally fall on their face in the Tournament (Pitt, Vandy).

Final, Final Four: Kansas, Syracuse, West Virginia, Baylor
Kansas has been the strongest team all season long, so even though they have a death-march of a draw, they're the only team I feel comfortable about. I believe I sufficiently explained my reasoning for picking Syracuse above. West Virginia is a huge boom-or-bust team coached by a man (Bob Huggins) that never defeated a higher-seed in 14 NCAA Tournament trips at Cincinnati. However, they're red-hot and they have experienced players that have been in big situations unlike Kentucky that relies mostly on underclassmen. Finally, my Baylor pick is a combination of my man-crush on the Bears and my refusal to fall into the trap of picking Duke just because they have an easy draw (like I did in '06).

Happy Basketball to you and enjoy the best time of the year on the sports calendar.

Early Tourney Thoughts

I gave myself 24 hours to digest the NCAA Tournament draw, and have a few assorted thoughts. We won't lock into the picks until Wednesday. Filling out a bracket for me is sort of like what picking out a wedding dress is probably like for a chick - I go through a bunch before one feels just right.

Seeding - the Selection committee very rarely gets this right. Tell me, which is the tougher draw?

Draw A: #2 Ohio St., #3 Georgetown, #4 Maryland, #5 Michigan St.

Draw B: #2 Kansas St., #3 Pittsburgh, #4 Vanderbilt, #5 Butler

In the last eleven years, Draw A has combined for ten Final Four appearances. Draw B has only been past the Sweet 16 once (Pitt last year). However, Draw A went to supposed top overall seed Kansas, while the much easier Draw B went to the fourth #1 Syracuse.

Bracket Buster II - in this year's draw, there were 15 teams from non-BCS leagues on the 5-12 seed lines. Of that group, eight are playing each other: Temple/Cornell, Butler/UTEP, Richmond/St. Mary's, and Northern Iowa/UNLV. Instead of matching up Texas/Wake Forest and Clemson/Missouri, why not mix those teams up against mid-majors?

We don't learn anything from matchups like Drake/WKU

Snubs - this was truly a weak field of at-large hopefuls. Unlike past years, I don't feel like there was a team left out that had a legitimate complaint. Virginia Tech had the 339th rated non-league schedule, Mississippi State had only two RPI Top 50 win (Vanderbilt, Old Dominion), and Illinois had fourteen losses with four coming to teams rated outside of the RPI Top 100 (Bradley, Georgia, Northwestern, Utah).

Big Ten Tourney Picks!

With the Big Ten Tournament set to begin downtown this afternoon, here are my picks:

First Round
#11 Penn State over #6 Minnesota
#7 Northwestern over #10 Indiana
#8 Michigan over #9 Iowa

As much as I would love to pick Indiana to beat Northwestern back-to-back games, I just don't see how it happens. The Hoosiers played one of their best offensive games (43% shooting, 10-23 3-PT, 26-32 FT) of the season last Saturday against the Wildcats, and still needed overtime to survive John Shurna & Co. Meanwhile, Penn State has split their last six meetings, and three losses have only come by 8, 2, and 4 points to the three top teams in the conference (Ohio St., Michigan St. Purdue). I think they'll sneak up on Minnesota.

Quarterfinals
#4 Wisconsin over #5 Illinois
#3 Michigan State over #11 Penn State
#2 Purdue over #7 Northwestern
#1 Ohio State over #8 Michigan

Illinois is the only team that hasn't locked up an NCAA bid with legitimate at-large hopes going into this week. Even though they have played well in the Big Ten Tournament, it's hard to see them bouncing back from a lifeless performance in Sunday's 15-point home loss to the same Wisconsin team that they'll face on Friday. The Spartans survive a scare from the Nittany Lions like they did last week, Purdue does enough to get by Northwestern, and Ohio State flexes their muscle against the overmatched Wolverines.

Semifinals
#3 Michigan State over #2 Purdue
#1 Ohio State over #4 Wisconsin

It would be a great story if the Boilers rallied around each other and put together a run, but this is a team that has yet to prove they can beat quality opponents without Robbie Hummel. They had a forgettable effort in a home loss to Michigan State, beat a bad IU team, and barely scraped by last-place Penn State. Wisconsin is scrappy, and I actually think the winner of this game will win the Tournament, but the Buckeyes are rolling right now.

Championship
#1 Ohio State over #3 Michigan State

Ohio State's depth issues will prevent them from making a serious National Championship run, but they're good enough to get by a maddeningly inconsistent Spartans squad. Just to add to the chalkiness of my bracket, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Evan Turner earns MOP honors. I'm feeling risky today.