Breaking Down my Bracket

Gimmie Upset: San Diego State over Tennessee
The Volunteers can beat everyone on any given night as evident by their wins over Kansas and Kentucky this season, but they also lost to USC by 22 and Georgia during SEC play. The Aztecs are an intriguing team led by Steve Fisher (who coached the 1989 National Champion Michigan team) and was two points away from being MWC regular season champ New Mexico three times this season.

Easy Final Four pick: None
Each year there is generally an easy Final Four pick in at least one of the regions. Last year, it was UConn coming out of the West. The two-seed was a grossly overrated Memphis team, the #3 a Missouri team that didn't have the interior weapons to slay the Huskies, and the 4/5 (Purdue, Washington) weren't serious threats. Teams like North Carolina (2005, 2008) and Florida (2007) have also been no-brainers. On the flip side, this year there is no gimmie Final Four pick. Kansas is a team that everyone has (so you're safe picking them), but their region includes Ohio State, Georgetown, Maryland, and Michigan State - a group that has combined for ten Final Fours since 1999.

Tough Final Four pick: Baylor
I have a problem falling in love with teams early in the season and I end up convincing myself that they're legit contenders. This happened with Acie Law's Texas A&M team in 2007, who I actually had in my National Championship Game, as well as the Foye/Ray/Fraser Villanova team in 2006, who I picked to win it all. Both of those teams fell well short of my expectations. The Bears are sort of like a poor man's 2009 UConn team - great frontline depth and size (Thabeet, Adrien, Robinson to Udoh, Lomers, Jones), plus a guard that can take over a game (A.J. Price to LaceDarius Dunn). They could hypothetically have to get by Notre Dame, Villanova, and Duke to get to Indianapolis, which is a steep climb for a team whose best win this season came against Xavier and went 1-3 against Kansas, Kansas State, and Texas A&M combined.

Reach of the Tournament: Utah State
The 4/13, 5/12 groupings get messy a lot of the time, and that's what I expect in the South Region. Purdue is coming off a 30+ point drilling by Minnesota and is without their star player, while Texas A&M is solid but unspectacular. The two mid-majors those teams will face are MAAC Champion Siena (who has won First Round games in each of the past two seasons), and Utah State (one of the final at-large bids). The Aggies are notorious for playing a soft schedule - they've had teams left out of the NCAAs that have won 23, 25, 23, and 24 games - but came a basket away from upsetting Marquette a year ago. They're my sleeper to come out of that group. It's frustrated because this is a grouping that should've gone to Kansas or Kentucky instead of Duke.

Toughest Region to predict: West
Syracuse will be without big man Arinze Onuaku for at least the first two games, maybe more. Looking around the rest of the region, Kansas State is strong, but is in unchartered waters for that program. Pittsburgh rarely (if ever) plays to their seeding, Vanderbilt is the weakest #4, Butler isn't a realistic Final Four team, and Xavier is a bit of an enigma. Some people are hopping on #7 BYU to come out of that group. I picked Syracuse mostly because I didn't feel comfortable hedging my bets on unproven teams (Kansas State) or ones that generally fall on their face in the Tournament (Pitt, Vandy).

Final, Final Four: Kansas, Syracuse, West Virginia, Baylor
Kansas has been the strongest team all season long, so even though they have a death-march of a draw, they're the only team I feel comfortable about. I believe I sufficiently explained my reasoning for picking Syracuse above. West Virginia is a huge boom-or-bust team coached by a man (Bob Huggins) that never defeated a higher-seed in 14 NCAA Tournament trips at Cincinnati. However, they're red-hot and they have experienced players that have been in big situations unlike Kentucky that relies mostly on underclassmen. Finally, my Baylor pick is a combination of my man-crush on the Bears and my refusal to fall into the trap of picking Duke just because they have an easy draw (like I did in '06).

Happy Basketball to you and enjoy the best time of the year on the sports calendar.