Swing and Miss

If you need a reason why the Colts have apparently fallen off a cliff in 2010 with their disappointing 6-6 record, look no further then some of their most recent Draft classes. It's unfair to make a blanket judgement on the 2010 class, mostly because those players are still rookies. Even though Jerry Hughes has been a disappointment, he should be given more than twelve games to prove himself, as should the rest of the group.

However, if you look at the 2007, 2008, and 2009 Draft classes, Bill Polian has been missing a lot more than he's been hitting.

2007
1 – WR Anthony Gonzalez
2 – OT Tony Ugoh
3 – CB Dante Hughes
3 – DT Quin Pitcock
4 – S Brannon Condren
4 – LB Clint Session
5 – WR Roy Hall
5 – CB Michael Coe
7 – DE Keyunta Dawson

2008
2 – OG Mike Pollak
3 – LB Philip Wheeler
4 – TE Jacob Tamme
5 – DE Marcus Howard
6 – TE Tom Santi
6 – C Steve Justice
6 – RB Mike Hart
6 – WR Pierre Garcon
7 – C Jamey Richard

2009
1 – RB Donald Brown
2 – DT Fili Moala
3 – CB Jerraud Powers
4 – WR Austin Collie
4 – DT Terrance Taylor
6 - QB Curtis Painter
7 – P Pat McAfee
7 – OG Jaimie Thomas

Of these 26 players, ten (all highlighted in red) are no longer with the team, including more than half of the nine player 2007 Draft class. An even more glaring issue: only four of the 26 players (Session Moala, Powers, Collie/Garcon - take your pick for #2 WR) are healthy starters. Out of the entire 26 player group, there are really only a handful of players that you could say are valuable at this point. Jerraud Powers (3rd, 2009) looks like a future Pro Bowler and is already the best cornerback on the team. Austin Collie (4th, 2009) is a perfect fit for this offense. With some more seasoning, Pierre Garcon (6th, 2008) could be a star, and regardless, he was a sixth-round steal out of Mount Union. Pat McAfee (7th, 2009), Jacob Tamme (4th, 2008), and Mike Hart (6th, 2008) have stepped up to the plate when asked to do so.

It's not that the Colts haven't tried to address their offensive and defensive line issues. Ten of the 26 players they drafted in the 2007-09 classes were either offensive or defensive lineman. The problem is that none of them have made any sort of significant impact: Ugoh, Pitcock, Dawson, Pollak, Howard, Justice, Richard, Moala, Taylor, and Thomas. Only one of those (Moala) is a current starter, while the others that are still with the team are low-level backups (Pollak, Dawson, Richard, Thomas), with little-to-no upside. Ugoh, who was cut before the season, was perhaps the biggest bust of the Polian era. The Colts traded their 2008 first round pick to trade into the 2007 second round to select him out of Arkansas. Small injuries (cough laziness cough) cost Ugoh time in games and practice, and judging by how much this offensive line has struggled, the fact that the Colts were willing to cut their losses tells you all you need to know about Ugoh.

It's foolish to ask Bill Polian to hit a home run in every Draft class, but he was pretty darn close from 2003-06. In those Drafts, the Colts selected six future Pro Bowlers (Robert Mathis, Cato June, Dallas Clark, Joseph Addai, Antoine Bethea, Bob Sanders), several top-end starters (Jake Scott, Kelvin Hayden, Marlin Jackson, Charlie Johnson), and a few other somewhat impact players (Jason David, Tyjuan Hagler).

The Colts will go into this offseason needing to do more than just tinker. Their offensive line needs a complete overhaul, and it's time to start restocking the depth at several key positions - most notably in the defensive secondary. With the Colts likely to get a pick in the lower 20's, a position they haven't been in since 2002, this 2011 Draft becomes the most important of the Polian era.