Bracket Breakdown

After slamming head into a desk repeatedly over the last 72 hours, I've finally come up with some analysis (if you want to call it that) on the 2011 NCAA Tournament. Enjoy.

EAST Region
Best potential matchup: Ohio State vs. Kentucky
This matchup really should've come in a Regional Final, but instead Kentucky was under-seeded as a four. You'd have the best team in the Big Ten face off against the top squad in the SEC in the Sweet 16. The Buckeyes would certainly have the experience edge, but the Wildcats have the athleticism to cause Ohio State some problems.

Easy pickin': Xavier over Marquette
I'm stunned how many people are picking the Golden Eagles in this game. Since going to the Final Four in 2003, Marquette is 2-5 in the NCAA Tournament with three one-and-dones. Meanwhile, the Musketeers are one of the most dangerous teams in March. In their last eight Tournament appearances, they have only lost in the First Round once (falling by four points as a 14-seed against 3-seed Gonzaga in '06). In that span, they've advanced to the second weekend three times, going as far as the Elite 8 twice. I know that doesn't have much to do with this year, but I'll generally take the team that plays well in the Tournament over the team that doesn't. Plus, Tu Holloway will be the best player on the court by far.

Darkhorse: Washington
The Huskies come into the Tourney hot after running to a Pac-10 Tournament title. Junior guard Isaiah Thomas is one of the most dynamic players in the field, and UW is prone to offensive explosions. They should have any easy time of it against a weak Georgia squad in the opener, and can cause a lot of problems for potential Second Round foe North Carolina.

Champ: Ohio State
Even in a loaded region, the Buckeyes are the least flawed. Depth could be an issue, but their 1-7 is the best in the nation. I love the job Thad Matta has done mixing in experience (Lighty, Diebler, etc.) and youth (Sullinger, Craft, Thomas). They'll have to earn those four wins, but if anyone can make a tough run through the East, it's them.

WEST Region
Best potential matchup: UConn vs. Missouri
As an 11-seed, the Tigers don't jump out to you as a serious threat, but it's Mike Anderson's up-tempo style that should make this Second Round matchup a treat. Mizzou sports five players averaging in double-figures scoring, but had a lot of trouble away from Columbia this year. UConn likes to get up and down as well, so this one would likely get into 90s. Both teams shouldn't overlook Cincinnati and Bucknell, though.

Easy pickin': Arizona over Memphis
There isn't an upset pick that jumps out to me in this bracket, but I've been seeing Memphis get some heavy consideration as everyone loads up on 12-over-5 selections. I'm having trouble picking a Tigers team that wouldn't have even made the field without UTEP blowing a 13-point lead in the Conference USA Tournament Title game. Arizona has one of the best individual talents in the country in Derrick Williams, and would be one of the toughest challenges this season for a Memphis team that missed on numerous opportunities against Top 25-caliber teams over the course of the year.

Darkhorse: Tennessee
There may not be a team in the West Region more talented than Tennessee - the problem is that the Vols have rarely been able to put it together. UT limped to the finish line, losers of seven of their last eleven, but have a number of impressive early-season wins against teams like Pittsburgh, Villanova, and Memphis. Things fell into place for them in their Elite 8 run last year, but it'll be tough for history to repeat itself, even with the potent duo of Scotty Hopson and Tobias Harris.
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Champ: Texas
The Longhorns are a huge risk, especially with the way that they fizzled down the stretch, but this is a Region of risks. Duke is experienced and talented, but their overall body of work in a weak ACC wasn't worthy of their #1 seed. San Diego State has NBA talent (see: Kawhi Leonard), but built their entire resume on their dominance of UNLV, who they defeated three times. UConn has some exciting young guns, but they're essentially a one-man show that will go as far as Kemba Walker takes them. Here's hoping that the midseason version of Texas' reappears in March, instead of the Tournament version we've seen most years since 2003.

SOUTHWEST Region
Best potential matchup: Purdue vs. Notre Dame
I've always enjoyed their football rivalry - why not hoops as well? Two of the best-coached teams in the country are slated to meet in the Southwest Regional Semifinals should they be good enough to get through their first two games in nearby Chicago. The Irish are underrated athletically, and have a starting lineup with five guys that can hurt you. When Purdue defends well, they can hang with (and beat) anyone in the country. The most intriguing question in this game is what Notre Dame does on the interior to counter JaJuan Johnson. Meanwhile, without Kelsey Barlow, the Boilers will be short one of their best defenders against one of the nation's most fluid offenses.

Easy pickin': Richmond over Vanderbilt
This didn't require much thought. In their last two trips to the NCAAs as a four-seed, Vandy has been embarrassed in upset losses to Siena and Murray State. Meanwhile, scrappy Richmond, a 27-win team this season, may have been under-seeded as a #12. The Spiders have won seven straight, and eleven of their last twelve heading into the Tournament. The senior All-Atlantic 10 duo of Justin Harper (17.9 ppg) and Kevin Anderson (16.5 ppg) are a handful.

Darkhorse: Louisville
One thing we know about the overachieving Cardinals this season is that they've competed with everyone. Of their nine losses, five either came by single-digits or in overtime, mostly in the rugged Big East. Unlike in past years, Louisville doesn't "wow" you with NBA talent, but this is perhaps Rick Pitino's best coaching job of his illustrious career. They're athletic and they play smart. The Cards are going to be an awfully tough out.

Champ: Louisville
It's too easy to pick Kansas. If the Tournament was based on talent alone, the KU would be in the Final Four every year. I'll go out on a limb and take Louisville because I think they're one of the few teams in the country that has the athletes to compete with the Jayhawks. We've seen super-athletic teams (Texas, Kansas State) cause them problems this season. Plus, the Jayhawks burned me in '97, '98, and '10, and I'm tired of getting toasted.

Can't go wrong with a guy named "Peyton", right?

SOUTHEAST Region
Best potential matchup: Butler vs. Old Dominion
Take the word "potential" right out of it. Butler/ODU may be the best head-to-head battle that this dumpster-fire of a grouping has to offer. ODU is making their fourth Tournament appearance in seven years, and this may be their best team yet, claiming victories over Clemson, Xavier, and Richmond this season. Also, don't underrate the strength of the Colonial which sent three teams to the NCAAs this year. Butler is Butler. They'll be ready and focused. But, the Monarchs won't be afraid.

Easy pickin': Florida being upset at some point
I have UCLA knocking them off in my bracket. Some have Michigan State. Others have whoever comes out of the BYU/Wofford/St. John's/Gonzaga pod. The Gators are a nice team, but were grossly over-seeded as a 2. The good news for Florida is that they drew what is by far the weakest half of any Region: a one-man BYU squad, banged-up St. John's, and bi-polar UCLA and Michigan State teams. I'm just not real high on Billy Donovan's group this year.

Darkhorse: UCLA
I often develop crushes on young teams with great head coaches, and UCLA checks both of those areas off on the list. They had some early growing pains, including a four-game non-conference losing skid capped by a loss to Montanta, but have since rebounded nicely. Oh, and it helps that the Bruins are 14-4 in their last four trips to the NCAA Tournament with three Final Four appearances.

Champion: Pittsburgh
Sometimes you're forced into picking a team based on what the draw ends up being. If Pitt breaks through for their first Final Four appearance since World War II, they should send a thank you card to the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. This Southeast Region is the worst Region that I can ever remember (2000 West Region is a close second) since I started filling out brackets in the early 1990s. Who beats Pitt? Kansas State, who was comatose for the first three months of the season? Wisconsin, who scored 33 points in their last game? BYU without Brandon Davies? Overrated Florida? Despite their lack of Tournament success - Pitt has been defeated by a lower-seed in six of their last eight NCAA appearances - my pick is the Panthers by default.

The Shots Final Bracket
CHAMPIONSHIP: Ohio State over Pittsburgh
FINAL FOUR: Ohio State, Texas, Louisville, Pittsburgh
DARKHORSES: Xavier and UCLA in the Elite 8
FIRST ROUND UPSETS: VCU, Richmond, Belmont, Wofford