Quickest MLB Preview Ever

Author's note: we're already about two hours into Opening Day, so me putting off my MLB Preview has left me scrambling just to get some predictions on the record. Here they are...

AMERICAN LEAGUE
East: Red Sox - They're just too strong. Their offseason reminds me of what the Yankees did in '09 which led to a World Series run. Also, just imagine what they can do with a healthy Youkilis, Pedroia, and Ellsbury...

Central: White Sox - Chicago seems to be the trendy pick. There's nothing exciting about this team, but they're steady and would've been the Division champ last year if not for a late-season fade. The Adam Dunn Factor (teams suck when they acquire him) worries me.

West: Athletics - A casual baseball fan won't know much about their starting rotation, but it's enough to make a baseball nerd drool. For what Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, and Brett Anderson lack in big name appea, they make up for in talent and effectiveness. Don't sleep on Dallas Braden either - he was 11-14, but only had a 3.50 ERA in 2010.

Wild Card: Yankees - With Tampa Bay falling off, it's hard to see anyone else coming up here and grabbing this spot. If the AL Central was a college basketball conference, it would be a one-bid league. Texas had a lot of things go right last year, and the Angels aren't back (yet). From a talent standpoint, New York is still one of the three best teams in the league.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
East: Phillies - This team isn't as invincible as everyone makes them out to be. Chase Utley likely won't be back until mid-May, and promising prospect Dom Brown is hurt, and still may need some more seasoning when he returns. The success of this squad falls on their starting pitching, which with the addition of Cliff Lee, is one of teh best we've ever seen on paper.

Central: Reds - I think they're a safe pick because there are more answers than questions with this bunch. They aren't flashy, but they have a wealth of solid starters, a young lineup with no glaring holes, and are possibly the best defensive team in all of baseball.

West: Rockies - I've been burned by them the last couple of years, but the law of averages says that I'll have to be right eventually. Ubaldo Jimenez can't be expected to have the same season as he did last year, but if the rest of their rotation can pick it up, they'll be in good shape.

Wild Card: Braves - It's tough leaving the defending World Champs out of it, but the Braves look like they're back. It's taken a few years for them to retool, but they have terrific pitching depth. Nate McClouth can't be worse than he was last year, and the addition of Dan Uggla can only help.

I'm not going to give you my World Series pick for fear that this entry will end up similar to my Bracket picks (see below, if you dare). But, I'm leaning towards Red Sox/Rockies in a rematch of a non-competitive 2007 Fall Classic, with the same end result.

Hail to the King

In the late 1990's and early 2000's, Gonzaga captivated the nation with back-to-back-to-back Cinderella runs in the NCAA Tournament to the Elite 8 (1999 as a #10 seed) and the Sweet 16 (2000 as a #10 seed, 2001 as a #12 seed). They have made the NCAA Tournament in every year since, winning 263 games in the process, to become known as the preeminent mid-major power in college hoops.

However, following an upset of another top-seed to secure their fourth Sweet 16 appearance in their last six Tournament trips, Butler has surpassed Gonzaga as the king of mid-major hoops. Let me preface this by saying that I don't often count Xavier, from what is historically a multi-bid Atlantic 10 conference, as a mid-major. That term is reserved for teams from leagues that generally send just one team to the NCAA Tournament, ala the West Coast and Horizon (Mountain West wouldn't count).

When you look at the comparison between Gonzaga and Butler over the last decade, it's barely a comparison at all. Despite accruing more bluechip talent, the Zags' Tournament results just haven't stacked up against Butler's.

NCAA TOURNAMENT
Gonzaga hasn't really done anything since making their third straight run to the NCAA Tournament's second weekend in 2001. Since '01, Gonzaga has defeated the following teams in the Tournament:

Gonzaga Tourney wins since 2002:
#8 Cincinnati*
#15 Valparaiso
#14 Winthrop
#14 Xavier
#6 Indiana
#13 Akron
#12 Western Kentucky
#9 Florida State
#6 St. John's*
*win against a higher-seeded team

Gonzaga has beaten only two higher-seeded teams in the last decade, with no wins over a seed better than a 6. Five of their nine Tournament wins have come against a seed #12 or lower. Not very impressive at all. They went to the Sweet 16 twice, beating a 14 and 6 as a 3-seed in 2006, and a 13 and 12 as a 4 seed in 2009.

Gonzaga Tourney losses since 2002:
2002: lost to #11 Wyoming by 7
2003: lost to #1 Arizona by 1 in OT
2004: lost to #10 Nevada by 19
2005: lost to #6 Texas Tech by 2
2006: lost to #2 UCLA by 2
2007: lost to #7 Indiana by 13
2008: lost to #10 Davidson by 6
2009: lost to #1 North Carolina by 21
2010: lost to #1 Syracuse by 22
2011: lost to #3 BYU by 23

When matched-up against top-level competition, Gonzaga hasn't even been close. Their last three Tournament exits have all come in blowout fashion. This decade they've lost to four teams seeded below them (11, 10, 6, 10), and are just 2-6 against higher-seeded teams. Who has Gonzaga really beaten/pushed in the Tournament in the last decade outside of the OT loss to top-seeded Arizona in '03? Just in the last four years, Butler has defeated the outright Big East regular season champion (both as #1 seeds), defeated #2 seed Kansas State, and took #2 seed Tennessee to double overtime in 2008. Take a look:

Butler Tournament wins since 2002:
#5 Mississippi State*
#4 Louisville*
#12 Old Dominion
#4 Maryland*
#10 South Alabama
#12 UTEP
#13 Murray State
#1 Syracuse*
#2 Kansas State*
#5 Michigan State
#9 Old Dominion
#1 Pittsburgh*

Butler Tournament losses since 2002:
2003: lost to #1 Oklahoma by 11
2007: lost to #1 Florida by 8
2008: lost to #2 Tennessee by 5 in OT
2009: lost to #8 LSU by 4
2010: lost to #1 Duke by 2

In their six Tournament appearances this decade, Butler has been eliminated by three #1s and a #2 by an average of just over six points per contest. That's a lot less than the 20+ point beatdowns that have been handed out to Gonzaga over the past few years. Butler has advanced to the Sweet 16 four times in their past six Tourney trips as a #12, #5, #5, and #8. Gonzaga has only made it to the second weekend as a #3 or a #4 in their last ten appearances. Also, Butler is 7-5 this past decade against teams that are either seeded higher than them or on their same seed-line (Michigan State, Final Four '10). Compare that to the Zags' 2-6 mark.

TALENT
Despite Gonzaga becoming a national player when it comes to top recruits, acquiring talent hasn't really paid off for them. Meanwhile, Butler is just starting to scratch the surface with their last few classes.

National Top 150 recruits since 2002:
Gonzaga (12): Josh Heytvelt #120 (2004), David Pendergraft #147 (2004), Jeremy Pargo #105 (2005), Matt Bouldin #45 (2006), Theo Davis #39 (2006), Austin Daye #25 (2007), Robert Sacre #102 (2007), Steven Gray #64 (2007), Grant Gibbs #118 (2008), Demetri Goodson #132 (2008), Mangisto Arop #88 (2009), Sam Dowyer #116 (2009)
Butler (3): Nick Brooks #124 (2003), Matt Howard #91 (2007), Khyle Marshall #118 (2010), Crishawn Hopkins #124 (2010).

Rivals.com three-star or better recruits:
Gonzaga (18): Derek Raivio (2003), Joao Batistia (2004), Heytvelt, Pendergraft, Pargo, Mamery Diallo (2005), Bouldin, Davis, Daye, Sacre, Gray, Gibbs, Goodson, Andy Poling (2008), Arop, Dower, GJ Vilarno (2009), Keegan Hyland (2010)
Butler (9): Brooks, Zach Hahn (2007), Howard, Gordon Hayward (2008), Shelvin Mack (2008), Ronald Nored (2008), Andrew Smith (2009), Marshall, Hopkins.

NBA Players:
Gonzaga (5): Dan Dickau, Adam Morrison, Blake Stepp, Austin Daye, Ronny Turiaf
Butler (1): Gordon Hayward

Gonzaga has gotten high-profile talent, but it hasn't been able to translate for them. Butler has had one pro (Hayward) as of now, and one Top 100 National recruit (Howard), yet they've outperformed Gonzaga in March.

The two schools have combined for 508 wins in the last decade, with either a regular season or Conference Tournament title (or both) in 17 of the 20 combined seasons. Both Gonzaga and Butler have carried the torch for all mid-major hoops programs. But, Butler has been doing more of the heavily lifting lately.

Bracket Breakdown

After slamming head into a desk repeatedly over the last 72 hours, I've finally come up with some analysis (if you want to call it that) on the 2011 NCAA Tournament. Enjoy.

EAST Region
Best potential matchup: Ohio State vs. Kentucky
This matchup really should've come in a Regional Final, but instead Kentucky was under-seeded as a four. You'd have the best team in the Big Ten face off against the top squad in the SEC in the Sweet 16. The Buckeyes would certainly have the experience edge, but the Wildcats have the athleticism to cause Ohio State some problems.

Easy pickin': Xavier over Marquette
I'm stunned how many people are picking the Golden Eagles in this game. Since going to the Final Four in 2003, Marquette is 2-5 in the NCAA Tournament with three one-and-dones. Meanwhile, the Musketeers are one of the most dangerous teams in March. In their last eight Tournament appearances, they have only lost in the First Round once (falling by four points as a 14-seed against 3-seed Gonzaga in '06). In that span, they've advanced to the second weekend three times, going as far as the Elite 8 twice. I know that doesn't have much to do with this year, but I'll generally take the team that plays well in the Tournament over the team that doesn't. Plus, Tu Holloway will be the best player on the court by far.

Darkhorse: Washington
The Huskies come into the Tourney hot after running to a Pac-10 Tournament title. Junior guard Isaiah Thomas is one of the most dynamic players in the field, and UW is prone to offensive explosions. They should have any easy time of it against a weak Georgia squad in the opener, and can cause a lot of problems for potential Second Round foe North Carolina.

Champ: Ohio State
Even in a loaded region, the Buckeyes are the least flawed. Depth could be an issue, but their 1-7 is the best in the nation. I love the job Thad Matta has done mixing in experience (Lighty, Diebler, etc.) and youth (Sullinger, Craft, Thomas). They'll have to earn those four wins, but if anyone can make a tough run through the East, it's them.

WEST Region
Best potential matchup: UConn vs. Missouri
As an 11-seed, the Tigers don't jump out to you as a serious threat, but it's Mike Anderson's up-tempo style that should make this Second Round matchup a treat. Mizzou sports five players averaging in double-figures scoring, but had a lot of trouble away from Columbia this year. UConn likes to get up and down as well, so this one would likely get into 90s. Both teams shouldn't overlook Cincinnati and Bucknell, though.

Easy pickin': Arizona over Memphis
There isn't an upset pick that jumps out to me in this bracket, but I've been seeing Memphis get some heavy consideration as everyone loads up on 12-over-5 selections. I'm having trouble picking a Tigers team that wouldn't have even made the field without UTEP blowing a 13-point lead in the Conference USA Tournament Title game. Arizona has one of the best individual talents in the country in Derrick Williams, and would be one of the toughest challenges this season for a Memphis team that missed on numerous opportunities against Top 25-caliber teams over the course of the year.

Darkhorse: Tennessee
There may not be a team in the West Region more talented than Tennessee - the problem is that the Vols have rarely been able to put it together. UT limped to the finish line, losers of seven of their last eleven, but have a number of impressive early-season wins against teams like Pittsburgh, Villanova, and Memphis. Things fell into place for them in their Elite 8 run last year, but it'll be tough for history to repeat itself, even with the potent duo of Scotty Hopson and Tobias Harris.
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Champ: Texas
The Longhorns are a huge risk, especially with the way that they fizzled down the stretch, but this is a Region of risks. Duke is experienced and talented, but their overall body of work in a weak ACC wasn't worthy of their #1 seed. San Diego State has NBA talent (see: Kawhi Leonard), but built their entire resume on their dominance of UNLV, who they defeated three times. UConn has some exciting young guns, but they're essentially a one-man show that will go as far as Kemba Walker takes them. Here's hoping that the midseason version of Texas' reappears in March, instead of the Tournament version we've seen most years since 2003.

SOUTHWEST Region
Best potential matchup: Purdue vs. Notre Dame
I've always enjoyed their football rivalry - why not hoops as well? Two of the best-coached teams in the country are slated to meet in the Southwest Regional Semifinals should they be good enough to get through their first two games in nearby Chicago. The Irish are underrated athletically, and have a starting lineup with five guys that can hurt you. When Purdue defends well, they can hang with (and beat) anyone in the country. The most intriguing question in this game is what Notre Dame does on the interior to counter JaJuan Johnson. Meanwhile, without Kelsey Barlow, the Boilers will be short one of their best defenders against one of the nation's most fluid offenses.

Easy pickin': Richmond over Vanderbilt
This didn't require much thought. In their last two trips to the NCAAs as a four-seed, Vandy has been embarrassed in upset losses to Siena and Murray State. Meanwhile, scrappy Richmond, a 27-win team this season, may have been under-seeded as a #12. The Spiders have won seven straight, and eleven of their last twelve heading into the Tournament. The senior All-Atlantic 10 duo of Justin Harper (17.9 ppg) and Kevin Anderson (16.5 ppg) are a handful.

Darkhorse: Louisville
One thing we know about the overachieving Cardinals this season is that they've competed with everyone. Of their nine losses, five either came by single-digits or in overtime, mostly in the rugged Big East. Unlike in past years, Louisville doesn't "wow" you with NBA talent, but this is perhaps Rick Pitino's best coaching job of his illustrious career. They're athletic and they play smart. The Cards are going to be an awfully tough out.

Champ: Louisville
It's too easy to pick Kansas. If the Tournament was based on talent alone, the KU would be in the Final Four every year. I'll go out on a limb and take Louisville because I think they're one of the few teams in the country that has the athletes to compete with the Jayhawks. We've seen super-athletic teams (Texas, Kansas State) cause them problems this season. Plus, the Jayhawks burned me in '97, '98, and '10, and I'm tired of getting toasted.

Can't go wrong with a guy named "Peyton", right?

SOUTHEAST Region
Best potential matchup: Butler vs. Old Dominion
Take the word "potential" right out of it. Butler/ODU may be the best head-to-head battle that this dumpster-fire of a grouping has to offer. ODU is making their fourth Tournament appearance in seven years, and this may be their best team yet, claiming victories over Clemson, Xavier, and Richmond this season. Also, don't underrate the strength of the Colonial which sent three teams to the NCAAs this year. Butler is Butler. They'll be ready and focused. But, the Monarchs won't be afraid.

Easy pickin': Florida being upset at some point
I have UCLA knocking them off in my bracket. Some have Michigan State. Others have whoever comes out of the BYU/Wofford/St. John's/Gonzaga pod. The Gators are a nice team, but were grossly over-seeded as a 2. The good news for Florida is that they drew what is by far the weakest half of any Region: a one-man BYU squad, banged-up St. John's, and bi-polar UCLA and Michigan State teams. I'm just not real high on Billy Donovan's group this year.

Darkhorse: UCLA
I often develop crushes on young teams with great head coaches, and UCLA checks both of those areas off on the list. They had some early growing pains, including a four-game non-conference losing skid capped by a loss to Montanta, but have since rebounded nicely. Oh, and it helps that the Bruins are 14-4 in their last four trips to the NCAA Tournament with three Final Four appearances.

Champion: Pittsburgh
Sometimes you're forced into picking a team based on what the draw ends up being. If Pitt breaks through for their first Final Four appearance since World War II, they should send a thank you card to the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. This Southeast Region is the worst Region that I can ever remember (2000 West Region is a close second) since I started filling out brackets in the early 1990s. Who beats Pitt? Kansas State, who was comatose for the first three months of the season? Wisconsin, who scored 33 points in their last game? BYU without Brandon Davies? Overrated Florida? Despite their lack of Tournament success - Pitt has been defeated by a lower-seed in six of their last eight NCAA appearances - my pick is the Panthers by default.

The Shots Final Bracket
CHAMPIONSHIP: Ohio State over Pittsburgh
FINAL FOUR: Ohio State, Texas, Louisville, Pittsburgh
DARKHORSES: Xavier and UCLA in the Elite 8
FIRST ROUND UPSETS: VCU, Richmond, Belmont, Wofford

Banner-worthy

With the recent trade of Bob Sanders, the Colts will need a new face to hang on one of their banners outside of Lucas Oil Stadium. If you're unfamiliar with the outside of the building, the Colts have four banners - one of which is of Sanders - that hang outside year round, with two on each side of the stadium. Peyton Manning, Dwight Freeney, and Reggie Wayne are on the other three.

So, with Sanders gone, who is banner-worthy?

The first candidates that come to mind are Dallas Clark, Gary Brackett, and Robert Mathis. All three have spent their entire careers in Indianapolis, and each of them are impact players. Clark is one of the best tight ends in the league, and his hard-nosed playing style (read: unafraid to take hits) has endeared him to the Colts' faithful. Brackett is the defensive captain and one of the vocal leaders of the team. He's worked his way up from an undrafted and undersized free agent, to one of the best middle linebackers in the league. Mathis is outspoken, he's fiery, and it helps that he's been to three straight Pro Bowls. You can't go wrong with any of those three, but for a darkhorse candidate, what about Johnny Unitas?

Since the Colts refuse to let go of their past in Baltimore, why not hang up a banner of the best player in franchise history? Unitas wanted nothing to do with Indianapolis, and wanted all of what he accomplished in a Colt uniform to stay in Baltimore. But, he's not here anymore. If Jim Irsay really wants to bring the franchise's history in Baltimore and Indianapolis together, this is his chance.

Doesn't this debate reveal the ridiculousness of the Colts holding onto history that isn't theirs? This has nothing to do with the Baltimore fans. They have their own team now. They won their own title in 2000. Broken hearts should've been mended long ago. My argument this entire time has been that the Colts have done enough in Indianapolis for that history to stand on its own. A Super Bowl Championship (XLI), 27 seasons, more games in Indy than were played in Baltimore - it's time to move on.

Nothing about the Baltimore Colts resonates with Indianapolis fans. Unitas isn't to Manning what Starr was to Favre, or what Staubach was to Aikman. Raymond Berry isn't a beloved figure in our city. To Colts fans in Indy, "The Greatest Game Ever Played" is the 2006 AFC Championship Game, not the 1958 NFL Championship.

Give Baltimore back their history, and further establish Indy's own. Or, put Johnny Unitas' face outside of Lucas Oil Stadium. We're only talking about a silly banner, but maybe the conversation about the Colts leaving the past in the past is worth bringing up again.

Best in the State?

As we enter the final week of the regular season, we have been debating on the show who the best team in Indiana is. Here's how they weigh-in:

Purdue (24-5, 13-3 Big Ten)
RPI says: 2-3 vs. Top 25, 5-3 vs. Top 50, 12-5 vs. Top 75
Good wins: Ohio State, Wisconsin, at Illinois
Bad losses: Richmond-N, at Minnesota
PROS: have two of the best players in the country, have a dominant big, are terrific defensively, good role players who know what their job is, have experience where they need it, don’t get shaken too much on the road,
CONS: did nothing against a mediocre non-league schedule, their road resume isn’t super-impressive, struggle when a third guy doesn’t step up, rely on streaky players like Smith, Byrd, and Barlow, had trouble closing out good opponents away from Mackey Arena

Notre Dame (24-5, 13-4 Big East)
RPI says: 6-4 vs. Top 25, 9-4 vs. Top 50, 12-5 vs. Top 75
Good wins: at Pitt, Wisconsin-N, Georgetown, St. John’s, UConn, Louisville, Villanova
Bad losses: at Marquette (by 22), at West Virginia (by 14), at St. John’s (by 18)
PROS: experienced, senior leadership, have a go-to guy (Ben Hansbrough), lethal from three-point range, can score with anybody
CONS: have not played consistently well away from home, struggle when they don’t hit shots, not terrific defensively, have issues against physical teams, don’t have a great Tournament history in recent seasons

Butler (21-9, 13-5 Horizon)
RPI says: 0-3 vs. Top 25, 3-3 vs. Top 50, 5-4 vs. Top 75
Good wins: swept Cleveland State, Florida State-N
Bad losses: at Youngstown State (RPI 290!), Evansville (136), at Wright State (129)
PROS: seem to have gotten things figured out since a three-game losing skid, one of the premiere teams in the Horizon defensively, found some consistency on offense, have veterans that have been there before, when they hit shots watch out, thrive in the underdog role
CONS: the only NCAA Tournament team they’ve beaten this year is FSU, did not play well on the road, the Horizon is still the Horizon, Shelvin Mack has been disappointing (FG% down from 45 to 40, 3-pt FG% down from 39 to 33), as has Zach Hahn

Butler isn't really a part of this conversation. They're not a Top 25-caliber team, much less a Final Four contender like Notre Dame and Purdue. This really comes down to the Irish and the Boilermakers. While Notre Dame has a much better overall resume, I feel that Purdue is the more dangerous team. They have two of the top ten players in the country in JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore, and are more of a consistent lockdown defensive team than Notre Dame is. The verdict goes to Purdue, but it's close. Both teams have a chance to really be dangerous in a few weeks.