With Butler making a surprise run to the Final Four, the comparisons to Hoosiers and Cinderella labels were to be expected. However, for the basketball fans of Indianapolis that have watched this program over the past four years, they know that this Butler program isn't your average Tourney darling. Here are five reasons why Butler shouldn't be put in the same boat as the George Masons of the past:
1) Pollsters giving props
Butler was ranked #10 in the 2009-10 preseason AP Top 25 poll and #11 in the final regular season poll three weeks ago. They've cracked the top 11 in the rankings in each of the past four seasons with highs of #9 (2006-07), #8 (2007-08), #11 (2008-09), and #10 (2009-10). Only three teams have spent more weeks in the Top 25 over that span: North Carolina, Kansas, and Duke.
2) Marquee wins
Take a look at some of the programs Butler has beaten in the past four seasons: #4 Syracuse (2010), #6 Kansas State (2010), #12 Xavier (2008), #15 Ohio State (2009), #21 Tennessee (2006), #22 Maryland (2007), #24 Gonzaga (2006) - not too shabby. Also, say what you want about the Horizon League, but winning 62 of 70 regular season games against Conference opponents is quite an accomplishment.
3) Record-wise
20-win seasons used to be the mark of excellence in college basketball. But, with the boom in preseason tournaments, 30 wins is considered the new "elite" benchmark. Over the past four seasons, the Bulldogs have averaged 30 wins per season (30-5 overall). Brad Stevens, who is in his third year at the helm, has won 88 of the 102 games (86%) in his short career. If you want to go back even further, Butler has won at least 20 games in 12 of the past 14 seasons, eclipsing the 25-win mark six different times.
4) Making it happen in March
The Final Four may be a new horizon (no pun intended) for Butler, but success in the NCAA Tournament is nothing new. Since 2001, the Dogs are 10-5 in the Tourney, going 5-1 in First Round games (a four-point loss to 8-seed LSU in 2009 the only blemish), taking two trips to the Sweet 16 (2003, 2007), and now the Final Four. Something else worth noting is that Butler has never lost to a lower-seeded team - that's something that Gonzaga has done four times since 2002.
5) Power of Personnel
No offense to A.J. Graves and Avery Sheets, but the overall talent level at Butler is night-and-day compared to what it was just five years ago. Matt Howard was ranked among the Top 100 players nationally by Rivals.com and held offers from Indiana, Purdue, and Xavier among others. Gordon Hayward was coveted by Purdue and Michigan. Shelvin Mack drew attention from Miami (FL) and UAB. Six players on the current Butler roster were rated three-stars or higher by most recruiting services. The Bulldogs don't have to find hidden gems in White River Valley any longer.
Monday, March 29, 2010
Monday, March 22, 2010
Going Mad (again!)
On Monday morning, the bracket that I had filled out that said "KANSAS" all over it found its final resting home - the trash.
Normally, being eliminated from my pool midway through the third day of the Tournament would upset me, but after everything that happened in the first two rounds, I couldn't be happier.
I had lost faith in the NCAA Tournament in the last two years. After two lifeless brackets where all four #1 seeds advanced for the first time to the Final Four (2008), and only one seed lower than a five made the second weekend (2009), four crazy days brought the "madness" back to March:
- The odds-on favorite Kansas, was beaten by Northern Iowa in the most jarring upset since George Mason toppled UConn in 2006.
- Eight double-digit seeds won their opening game, Including a #14 (Ohio), a #13 (Murray State), a #12 (Cornell), and two #11s (Washington, Old Dominion).
- A record-tying five non-BCS teams (Butler, Xavier, Northern Iowa, Saint Mary's and Cornell) advanced to the Sweet 16.
- 25 of the 48 games in the first two rounds were decided by nine points or less.
After all, the Tournament is about the Cinderellas.
It's back!
Kentucky, Syracuse, and Duke all still look strong, and the higher seeds could still reign supreme. But, for four days, the Tournament reminded us why it's the greatest event in American sports.
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Breaking Down my Bracket
Gimmie Upset: San Diego State over Tennessee
The Volunteers can beat everyone on any given night as evident by their wins over Kansas and Kentucky this season, but they also lost to USC by 22 and Georgia during SEC play. The Aztecs are an intriguing team led by Steve Fisher (who coached the 1989 National Champion Michigan team) and was two points away from being MWC regular season champ New Mexico three times this season.
Easy Final Four pick: None
Each year there is generally an easy Final Four pick in at least one of the regions. Last year, it was UConn coming out of the West. The two-seed was a grossly overrated Memphis team, the #3 a Missouri team that didn't have the interior weapons to slay the Huskies, and the 4/5 (Purdue, Washington) weren't serious threats. Teams like North Carolina (2005, 2008) and Florida (2007) have also been no-brainers. On the flip side, this year there is no gimmie Final Four pick. Kansas is a team that everyone has (so you're safe picking them), but their region includes Ohio State, Georgetown, Maryland, and Michigan State - a group that has combined for ten Final Fours since 1999.
Tough Final Four pick: Baylor
I have a problem falling in love with teams early in the season and I end up convincing myself that they're legit contenders. This happened with Acie Law's Texas A&M team in 2007, who I actually had in my National Championship Game, as well as the Foye/Ray/Fraser Villanova team in 2006, who I picked to win it all. Both of those teams fell well short of my expectations. The Bears are sort of like a poor man's 2009 UConn team - great frontline depth and size (Thabeet, Adrien, Robinson to Udoh, Lomers, Jones), plus a guard that can take over a game (A.J. Price to LaceDarius Dunn). They could hypothetically have to get by Notre Dame, Villanova, and Duke to get to Indianapolis, which is a steep climb for a team whose best win this season came against Xavier and went 1-3 against Kansas, Kansas State, and Texas A&M combined.
Reach of the Tournament: Utah State
The 4/13, 5/12 groupings get messy a lot of the time, and that's what I expect in the South Region. Purdue is coming off a 30+ point drilling by Minnesota and is without their star player, while Texas A&M is solid but unspectacular. The two mid-majors those teams will face are MAAC Champion Siena (who has won First Round games in each of the past two seasons), and Utah State (one of the final at-large bids). The Aggies are notorious for playing a soft schedule - they've had teams left out of the NCAAs that have won 23, 25, 23, and 24 games - but came a basket away from upsetting Marquette a year ago. They're my sleeper to come out of that group. It's frustrated because this is a grouping that should've gone to Kansas or Kentucky instead of Duke.
Toughest Region to predict: West
Syracuse will be without big man Arinze Onuaku for at least the first two games, maybe more. Looking around the rest of the region, Kansas State is strong, but is in unchartered waters for that program. Pittsburgh rarely (if ever) plays to their seeding, Vanderbilt is the weakest #4, Butler isn't a realistic Final Four team, and Xavier is a bit of an enigma. Some people are hopping on #7 BYU to come out of that group. I picked Syracuse mostly because I didn't feel comfortable hedging my bets on unproven teams (Kansas State) or ones that generally fall on their face in the Tournament (Pitt, Vandy).
Final, Final Four: Kansas, Syracuse, West Virginia, Baylor
Kansas has been the strongest team all season long, so even though they have a death-march of a draw, they're the only team I feel comfortable about. I believe I sufficiently explained my reasoning for picking Syracuse above. West Virginia is a huge boom-or-bust team coached by a man (Bob Huggins) that never defeated a higher-seed in 14 NCAA Tournament trips at Cincinnati. However, they're red-hot and they have experienced players that have been in big situations unlike Kentucky that relies mostly on underclassmen. Finally, my Baylor pick is a combination of my man-crush on the Bears and my refusal to fall into the trap of picking Duke just because they have an easy draw (like I did in '06).
Happy Basketball to you and enjoy the best time of the year on the sports calendar.
The Volunteers can beat everyone on any given night as evident by their wins over Kansas and Kentucky this season, but they also lost to USC by 22 and Georgia during SEC play. The Aztecs are an intriguing team led by Steve Fisher (who coached the 1989 National Champion Michigan team) and was two points away from being MWC regular season champ New Mexico three times this season.
Easy Final Four pick: None
Each year there is generally an easy Final Four pick in at least one of the regions. Last year, it was UConn coming out of the West. The two-seed was a grossly overrated Memphis team, the #3 a Missouri team that didn't have the interior weapons to slay the Huskies, and the 4/5 (Purdue, Washington) weren't serious threats. Teams like North Carolina (2005, 2008) and Florida (2007) have also been no-brainers. On the flip side, this year there is no gimmie Final Four pick. Kansas is a team that everyone has (so you're safe picking them), but their region includes Ohio State, Georgetown, Maryland, and Michigan State - a group that has combined for ten Final Fours since 1999.
Tough Final Four pick: Baylor
I have a problem falling in love with teams early in the season and I end up convincing myself that they're legit contenders. This happened with Acie Law's Texas A&M team in 2007, who I actually had in my National Championship Game, as well as the Foye/Ray/Fraser Villanova team in 2006, who I picked to win it all. Both of those teams fell well short of my expectations. The Bears are sort of like a poor man's 2009 UConn team - great frontline depth and size (Thabeet, Adrien, Robinson to Udoh, Lomers, Jones), plus a guard that can take over a game (A.J. Price to LaceDarius Dunn). They could hypothetically have to get by Notre Dame, Villanova, and Duke to get to Indianapolis, which is a steep climb for a team whose best win this season came against Xavier and went 1-3 against Kansas, Kansas State, and Texas A&M combined.
Reach of the Tournament: Utah State
The 4/13, 5/12 groupings get messy a lot of the time, and that's what I expect in the South Region. Purdue is coming off a 30+ point drilling by Minnesota and is without their star player, while Texas A&M is solid but unspectacular. The two mid-majors those teams will face are MAAC Champion Siena (who has won First Round games in each of the past two seasons), and Utah State (one of the final at-large bids). The Aggies are notorious for playing a soft schedule - they've had teams left out of the NCAAs that have won 23, 25, 23, and 24 games - but came a basket away from upsetting Marquette a year ago. They're my sleeper to come out of that group. It's frustrated because this is a grouping that should've gone to Kansas or Kentucky instead of Duke.
Toughest Region to predict: West
Syracuse will be without big man Arinze Onuaku for at least the first two games, maybe more. Looking around the rest of the region, Kansas State is strong, but is in unchartered waters for that program. Pittsburgh rarely (if ever) plays to their seeding, Vanderbilt is the weakest #4, Butler isn't a realistic Final Four team, and Xavier is a bit of an enigma. Some people are hopping on #7 BYU to come out of that group. I picked Syracuse mostly because I didn't feel comfortable hedging my bets on unproven teams (Kansas State) or ones that generally fall on their face in the Tournament (Pitt, Vandy).
Final, Final Four: Kansas, Syracuse, West Virginia, Baylor
Kansas has been the strongest team all season long, so even though they have a death-march of a draw, they're the only team I feel comfortable about. I believe I sufficiently explained my reasoning for picking Syracuse above. West Virginia is a huge boom-or-bust team coached by a man (Bob Huggins) that never defeated a higher-seed in 14 NCAA Tournament trips at Cincinnati. However, they're red-hot and they have experienced players that have been in big situations unlike Kentucky that relies mostly on underclassmen. Finally, my Baylor pick is a combination of my man-crush on the Bears and my refusal to fall into the trap of picking Duke just because they have an easy draw (like I did in '06).
Happy Basketball to you and enjoy the best time of the year on the sports calendar.
Monday, March 15, 2010
Early Tourney Thoughts
I gave myself 24 hours to digest the NCAA Tournament draw, and have a few assorted thoughts. We won't lock into the picks until Wednesday. Filling out a bracket for me is sort of like what picking out a wedding dress is probably like for a chick - I go through a bunch before one feels just right.
Seeding - the Selection committee very rarely gets this right. Tell me, which is the tougher draw?
Draw A: #2 Ohio St., #3 Georgetown, #4 Maryland, #5 Michigan St.
Seeding - the Selection committee very rarely gets this right. Tell me, which is the tougher draw?
Draw A: #2 Ohio St., #3 Georgetown, #4 Maryland, #5 Michigan St.
Draw B: #2 Kansas St., #3 Pittsburgh, #4 Vanderbilt, #5 Butler
In the last eleven years, Draw A has combined for ten Final Four appearances. Draw B has only been past the Sweet 16 once (Pitt last year). However, Draw A went to supposed top overall seed Kansas, while the much easier Draw B went to the fourth #1 Syracuse.
Bracket Buster II - in this year's draw, there were 15 teams from non-BCS leagues on the 5-12 seed lines. Of that group, eight are playing each other: Temple/Cornell, Butler/UTEP, Richmond/St. Mary's, and Northern Iowa/UNLV. Instead of matching up Texas/Wake Forest and Clemson/Missouri, why not mix those teams up against mid-majors?
In the last eleven years, Draw A has combined for ten Final Four appearances. Draw B has only been past the Sweet 16 once (Pitt last year). However, Draw A went to supposed top overall seed Kansas, while the much easier Draw B went to the fourth #1 Syracuse.
Bracket Buster II - in this year's draw, there were 15 teams from non-BCS leagues on the 5-12 seed lines. Of that group, eight are playing each other: Temple/Cornell, Butler/UTEP, Richmond/St. Mary's, and Northern Iowa/UNLV. Instead of matching up Texas/Wake Forest and Clemson/Missouri, why not mix those teams up against mid-majors?
We don't learn anything from matchups like Drake/WKU
Snubs - this was truly a weak field of at-large hopefuls. Unlike past years, I don't feel like there was a team left out that had a legitimate complaint. Virginia Tech had the 339th rated non-league schedule, Mississippi State had only two RPI Top 50 win (Vanderbilt, Old Dominion), and Illinois had fourteen losses with four coming to teams rated outside of the RPI Top 100 (Bradley, Georgia, Northwestern, Utah).
Thursday, March 11, 2010
Big Ten Tourney Picks!
With the Big Ten Tournament set to begin downtown this afternoon, here are my picks:
First Round
#11 Penn State over #6 Minnesota
#7 Northwestern over #10 Indiana
#8 Michigan over #9 Iowa
As much as I would love to pick Indiana to beat Northwestern back-to-back games, I just don't see how it happens. The Hoosiers played one of their best offensive games (43% shooting, 10-23 3-PT, 26-32 FT) of the season last Saturday against the Wildcats, and still needed overtime to survive John Shurna & Co. Meanwhile, Penn State has split their last six meetings, and three losses have only come by 8, 2, and 4 points to the three top teams in the conference (Ohio St., Michigan St. Purdue). I think they'll sneak up on Minnesota.
Quarterfinals
#4 Wisconsin over #5 Illinois
#3 Michigan State over #11 Penn State
#2 Purdue over #7 Northwestern
#1 Ohio State over #8 Michigan
Illinois is the only team that hasn't locked up an NCAA bid with legitimate at-large hopes going into this week. Even though they have played well in the Big Ten Tournament, it's hard to see them bouncing back from a lifeless performance in Sunday's 15-point home loss to the same Wisconsin team that they'll face on Friday. The Spartans survive a scare from the Nittany Lions like they did last week, Purdue does enough to get by Northwestern, and Ohio State flexes their muscle against the overmatched Wolverines.
Semifinals
#3 Michigan State over #2 Purdue
#1 Ohio State over #4 Wisconsin
It would be a great story if the Boilers rallied around each other and put together a run, but this is a team that has yet to prove they can beat quality opponents without Robbie Hummel. They had a forgettable effort in a home loss to Michigan State, beat a bad IU team, and barely scraped by last-place Penn State. Wisconsin is scrappy, and I actually think the winner of this game will win the Tournament, but the Buckeyes are rolling right now.
Championship
#1 Ohio State over #3 Michigan State
Ohio State's depth issues will prevent them from making a serious National Championship run, but they're good enough to get by a maddeningly inconsistent Spartans squad. Just to add to the chalkiness of my bracket, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Evan Turner earns MOP honors. I'm feeling risky today.
First Round
#11 Penn State over #6 Minnesota
#7 Northwestern over #10 Indiana
#8 Michigan over #9 Iowa
As much as I would love to pick Indiana to beat Northwestern back-to-back games, I just don't see how it happens. The Hoosiers played one of their best offensive games (43% shooting, 10-23 3-PT, 26-32 FT) of the season last Saturday against the Wildcats, and still needed overtime to survive John Shurna & Co. Meanwhile, Penn State has split their last six meetings, and three losses have only come by 8, 2, and 4 points to the three top teams in the conference (Ohio St., Michigan St. Purdue). I think they'll sneak up on Minnesota.
Quarterfinals
#4 Wisconsin over #5 Illinois
#3 Michigan State over #11 Penn State
#2 Purdue over #7 Northwestern
#1 Ohio State over #8 Michigan
Illinois is the only team that hasn't locked up an NCAA bid with legitimate at-large hopes going into this week. Even though they have played well in the Big Ten Tournament, it's hard to see them bouncing back from a lifeless performance in Sunday's 15-point home loss to the same Wisconsin team that they'll face on Friday. The Spartans survive a scare from the Nittany Lions like they did last week, Purdue does enough to get by Northwestern, and Ohio State flexes their muscle against the overmatched Wolverines.
Semifinals
#3 Michigan State over #2 Purdue
#1 Ohio State over #4 Wisconsin
It would be a great story if the Boilers rallied around each other and put together a run, but this is a team that has yet to prove they can beat quality opponents without Robbie Hummel. They had a forgettable effort in a home loss to Michigan State, beat a bad IU team, and barely scraped by last-place Penn State. Wisconsin is scrappy, and I actually think the winner of this game will win the Tournament, but the Buckeyes are rolling right now.
Championship
#1 Ohio State over #3 Michigan State
Ohio State's depth issues will prevent them from making a serious National Championship run, but they're good enough to get by a maddeningly inconsistent Spartans squad. Just to add to the chalkiness of my bracket, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Evan Turner earns MOP honors. I'm feeling risky today.
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
Four for Indiana?
Championship Week is officially upon us, and several Indiana teams will have a chance to punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament.
In the past few days, Indiana State (MVC), Evansville (MVC), Ball State (MAC), and IPFW (Summit) have all been eliminated, but the Hoosier state still has a legit chance at as many as four bids.
IUPUI will play in the Summit League final tonight against top-seeded Oakland, a team they split with this season. The Jaguars are looking for their first Tourney trip since being dropped by #1 seed Kentucky in 2003. They did have some success against Oakland this season, losing by just three on the road, and handing the Grizzlies their lone conference loss of the season by 24 in Indy.
Butler is already in, but could do themselves a big favor seeding-wise by holding serve tonight against Wright State in the Horizon League Championship game. The Dogs are currently the owners of the nation's longest winning streak at 19 games, and could nab as high as a #4 seed should they take care of business tonight.
The other teams that are looking strong are Purdue (a lock at 25-4), and Notre Dame, who finished with four straight wins to push their Big East record to 10-8. However, for the Irish to truly feel safe, they may want to knock-off the winner of Seton Hall/Providence in the Big East Quarters on Wednesday.
In the past few days, Indiana State (MVC), Evansville (MVC), Ball State (MAC), and IPFW (Summit) have all been eliminated, but the Hoosier state still has a legit chance at as many as four bids.
IUPUI will play in the Summit League final tonight against top-seeded Oakland, a team they split with this season. The Jaguars are looking for their first Tourney trip since being dropped by #1 seed Kentucky in 2003. They did have some success against Oakland this season, losing by just three on the road, and handing the Grizzlies their lone conference loss of the season by 24 in Indy.
Butler is already in, but could do themselves a big favor seeding-wise by holding serve tonight against Wright State in the Horizon League Championship game. The Dogs are currently the owners of the nation's longest winning streak at 19 games, and could nab as high as a #4 seed should they take care of business tonight.
The other teams that are looking strong are Purdue (a lock at 25-4), and Notre Dame, who finished with four straight wins to push their Big East record to 10-8. However, for the Irish to truly feel safe, they may want to knock-off the winner of Seton Hall/Providence in the Big East Quarters on Wednesday.
Friday, March 5, 2010
Gary Goes Nowhere
In a move that surprised no one, Gary Brackett will remain an Indianapolis Colt. Despite passing this morning’s 12:01 deadline, the unrestricted free agent agreed to a five-year deal. The contract will pay Brackett $33 million, including a signing bonus of $12 million. The deal makes Brackett one of the highest paid players at his position in the NFL.
The signing bucks a long-time trend by the Colts’ front office to let talented linebackers walk. In the past, players such as Cato June, Mike Peterson, and David Thornton have all been allowed to pursue free agency. However, while talented, those players never held the distinction of being defensive captain – a title that Brackett has held since the 2007 season.
Staying up-to-date with the latest, the Colts now have just one unrestricted free agent in K Matt Stover, who is expected to retire. Of their restricted free agents, safeties Melvin Bullitt and Antonie Bethea, along with LT Charlie Johnson, DT Antonio “Mookie” Johnson, and DT Daniel Muir have all been tendered. CB Marlin Jackson, PR T.J. Rushing, and the remaining restricted free agents were not given offers by the Colts and will become unrestricted free agents.
UPDATE: The Colts cut DT Raheem Brock and QB Jim Sorgi late Friday. Sorgi isn't as much of a suprise, but considering that Brock was only owed $3.8M for the final year of his deal, the news is a bit curious (especially in an uncapped year). Maybe Indy is freeing up as much money as they can for Peyton's lucrative extension?
The signing bucks a long-time trend by the Colts’ front office to let talented linebackers walk. In the past, players such as Cato June, Mike Peterson, and David Thornton have all been allowed to pursue free agency. However, while talented, those players never held the distinction of being defensive captain – a title that Brackett has held since the 2007 season.
Staying up-to-date with the latest, the Colts now have just one unrestricted free agent in K Matt Stover, who is expected to retire. Of their restricted free agents, safeties Melvin Bullitt and Antonie Bethea, along with LT Charlie Johnson, DT Antonio “Mookie” Johnson, and DT Daniel Muir have all been tendered. CB Marlin Jackson, PR T.J. Rushing, and the remaining restricted free agents were not given offers by the Colts and will become unrestricted free agents.
UPDATE: The Colts cut DT Raheem Brock and QB Jim Sorgi late Friday. Sorgi isn't as much of a suprise, but considering that Brock was only owed $3.8M for the final year of his deal, the news is a bit curious (especially in an uncapped year). Maybe Indy is freeing up as much money as they can for Peyton's lucrative extension?
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
