The Blame Game

Ugh. Here we go again...

Colts President Bill Polian pointed the finger at two units - the offensive line and Special Teams - and bemoaned the lack of execution in Indianapolis' Super Bowl XLIV loss to New Orleans.

Polian mentioned the onside kick to start the second-half as the turning point of the game:

"We had four things we could have done positively on that play. We didn't do any of them. That absolutely changed the game. It went from our getting the ball on their 40-yard line to having them march down for a touchdown."

The blame going on the offensive line is a bit of a surprise. The Colts rushed for 99 yards, well above their 80.9 ypg regular season average, and yielded zero sacks. Peyton Manning was rarely hurried or hit like he was in the Jets and Ravens games earlier in the playoffs.

Frankly, I'm tired of the blame game. Offense, defense, Special Teams, coaching - the Colts were outplayed and outexecuted in every single one of those areas. There's no reason to throw a specific unit or player under the bus.

If Polian really wants to point the finger at someone, why not his own head coach? Jim Caldwell's conservative approach after jumping out to a 10-0 lead was as much to blame as anything for the disappointing loss.

Looking for a Label

Nearly 24 hours after the completion of Super Bowl XLIV, I still can't fully define the legacy of the 2009 Colts. For a third straight year, and for the fifth time in six years, I'm left searching for an explanation.

For much of Sunday's loss, it was the Saints that played the brand of football that we had seen from the Colts for over five months. They played clean, they played smart, and most importantly of all, they played aggressive.

I thought that because New Orleans relied so much on their opponents making mistakes, that the Colts - a team that rarely shoots themselves in the foot - would prevail. They didn't, and the Saints were praised for a huge "upset" victory.

But, was New Orleans' win really an upset?

At some point between early December and early February, the football world decided that the once miniscule gap between the Colts and Saints had widened to the point where Indianapolis was suddenly the heavy favorite. The main culprit was the two team's performances in their respective Conference Championship games. One team overwhelmed their opponent in the second-half behind one of the best postseason performances in the career of their MVP quarterback. The other needed five fumbles, an overtime, and a ridiculously reckless throw by Brett Favre to punch their ticket to the franchise's first Super Bowl.

What we all forgot along the way, was that all the signs pointed to this being an even matchup.

The Colts' two best wins (record-wise) of the season came against Arizona and New England - two teams that the Saints pasted by a combined 45 points. In the postseason, New Orleans had just gotten by two Hall-of-Famers in Kurt Warner and Brett Favre, while the Colts beat-up on the inexperienced Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez. Someone tell me how overwhelming a nine-win, one-dimensional Wild Card team translated to defeating a 13-win, offensive juggernaut like New Orleans?

This, however, is not about excuse-making, it's just the realization that maybe the Colts weren't as dominant as we thought. Take a look back at the Colts in 2009... They didn't beat anyone with less than six losses. They needed seven fourth-quarter comebacks. Their two best wins were a fluky fortunate comeback against a not-as-good-as-advertised Patriots team, and a victory over the champion of the worst division in football (Arizona). They were also the second team ever to waltz into the Super Bowl by playing two Wild Card teams (the other being the 2005 Seahawks). Sure, you can't blame the Colts for playing the schedule in front of them, but did we put too much stock in a collection of wins over 7-9, 8-8, and 9-7 football teams?

Statistically, the Colts had a very good offense (6th scoring, 9th in yards-per-game), and a solid, but middling defense (8th in scoring, 18th in yards-per-game). In the final regular season DVOA rankings, they came in 8th. All of this shows that the Colts were a great team, but hardly an unstoppable force.

The NFL is now a passing league, and every single division-winner had an upper-level quarterback. With that in mind, fourteen of Indianapolis' sixteen wins came against the following quarterbacks:

David Garrard(twice), Chad Pennington, Seneca Wallace, Kerry Collins, Marc Bulger, Alex Smith, Matt Schaub (twice), Joe Flacco (twice), Vince Young, Kyle Orton, and Mark Sanchez.

Yeesh.

Had this team not started 14-0, would we think a Super Bowl victory was a given? All of this is very similar to the 2008 season. Had Indy not scored an impressive comeback over the eventual champion Steelers on the road, would we have falsely believed they could make a run? In both instances, probably not.

Obviously, this is a better Colts' team than the squad from '08. In fact, this was a great Colts team; any time you win 14 games you earn this distinction. But, because of the 14-0 start, they were placed amongst the all-time great teams - a label that was both illogical and undeserved. This team was never to the level of the 2007 Patriots, much less the 1985 Bears, regardless of what their record said. If we weren't all so preoccupied with the irrational dreams of a 19-0 season, maybe we would've realized that.

None of this takes the sting off of a Super Bowl loss. But, in hindsight, Sunday night's result wasn't as much of an upset as we made it out to be.

Anatomy Class

During every Super Bowl week, there's a major storyline. Last year, it was the Cardinals overcoming their "loser" heritage. The year before that, it was the Patriots pursuing perfection. This year, it's a body part - more specifically, the right ankle that belongs to Dwight Freeney.

Reports have surfaced that Freeney has a ligament tear in the ankle, something that the Colts have denied. Indianapolis is instead saying that it's a third-degree sprain (which by definition is technically a tear). Adam Schefter says "potatoe", Colts say "potato" - what everyone agrees on is this is serious.

Dwight Freeney's importance cannot be understated. He has wreaked havoc on opposing quarterbacks for almost a decade. Like Peyton Manning on the other side of the ball, Freeney defines the philosophy of the Colts' defense to a "T": quick, deceptive, relentless. Especially against the top scoring passing offense in the league, Freeney's potential loss is major. But, it's not a death-blow.

The Colts have prided themselves on their "next man up" philosophy, and backup Raheem Brock is a solid veteran that can fill the gap. What this injury does is level the playing field even more. If you thought Super Bowl XLIV was slightly in the Colts' favor (i.e. 55/45), then this probably tips the scales back to a toss-up.

Nobody said winning Championships was easy.

Way-too-early Offseason Glance

With a Super Bowl title on the line a week from Sunday, most of you Colts fans probably aren't thinking too much about the offseason.

But, since I'm always thinking one step ahead (like a carpenter that makes stairs), I thought it would be interesting to take a look at some of the personnel questions facing the Colts heading into the winter/spring of 2010.

The Anthony Gonzalez situation
You remember Gonzo right? The former first round pick out of Ohio State had productive 2007 and 2008 seasons and was poised for a breakout this year with the departure of Marvin Harrison. However, that never came to be thanks to a fluke non-contact injury in the early stages of the regular season opener against Jacksonville. The knee injury cost Gonzalez his 2009 season, and the "breakouts" instead came from Pierre Garcon and rookie Austin Collie. Gonzalez is still very talented and also has three years remaining on his deal, so there's no reason to think the Colts would part with him. But, it's not clear how Gonzalez exactly fits into their plans going into the 2010 season.

Peyton Manning's extension
Both parties so far have brushed this situation aside, saying that they'll take care of it when the time comes. Well, guess what? That time is almost here. The reigning back-to-back NFL MVP is about to enter the final year of the seven-year deal he signed before the 2004 campaign. Manning will turn 34 during the offseason, but given the performances of Brett Favre (40) and Kurt Warner (38), there's no reason to believe that Peyton couldn't be productive well into this decade. His little brother's contract extension netted him $97.5 million, and at the very least, Manning's final Colts' contract would probably match that or jump into the nine-figure range.

Key Free Agents
Is Gary Brackett the next great Colts linebacker to walk away? The defensive captain will be a free agent at the conclusion of the season, and Indianapolis doesn't exactly have a great track record when it comes to retaining star linebackers. The Colts let Mike Peterson, David Thornton, and Cato June all walk after their contracts were up. However, Brackett could be an exception to that rule because he is one of the clear locker room leaders, unlike any from that trio. Others on the free agent list include: Pro Bowl S Antonie Bethea, Marlin Jackson, Melvin Bullitt (restricted), Tim Jennings, and Charlie Johnson. Out of that group, the only two that are definitely gone are Jackson and Jennings.

We now return you to your regular Super Bowl programming...

Sting Like a Bee

For the 2nd time in four years, the Colts are heading back to Miami.

A 30-17 AFC Championship Game victory over the Jets, followed the script of many Colts' victories during the course of the 2009 season. New York jumped out to a hot start behind an aggressive defense and tricky offense, jumping out to a 17-6 2nd quarter lead. But, they failed to land the knockout blow.

I compared the Colts to a Championship boxer. So often this season, we've seen Indy step into the ring and fall behind on all three scorecards through the first four rounds. Opponents are able to jab and to land punches, but fail to connect on any haymakers. The Jets took control of the Colts in the early rounds, but Indianapolis came storming back.

So, where was the knockout blow?

Some point to the two-minute drive, highlighted by the 46-yard connection to Austin Collie that got the Colts within 17-13 at halftime. But, I think the real haymaker came in the third quarter. The Jets had driven to the Indianapolis 37-yard line to start the half, but the drive flamed-out, leading to a Jay Feely field goal miss from 52 yards out. Three minutes and eight plays later, the Colts were in the lead for good.

All the momentum the Jets had built - the effective blitzing, some fabulous throws by Mark Sanchez, trick plays - was in the toilet. It was only a three-point game, but the Jets were laying on the canvas.

16-2 with 16 TKOs and two forfeits. We'll see if the Colts can make it 17 in South Beach.

R-E-S-P-E-C-T?

We're only a handful of days away from the Colts playing for a trip to their 2nd Super Bowl, yet a lot of the talk this week has revolved around a perceived lack of national respect for Indy.

My response: who cares?

Let's face facts - the Colts aren't the story. In fact, out of the four remaining teams in the playoffs, the Colts are the least interesting.

Take a look at the Jets, Indy's counterpart for the AFC Championship game. They have a brash, honest-to-a-fault head coach in Rex Ryan, plus a confident, ball-hawking defense and physical rush offense. They're also a five-seed that was left for dead after scoring just seven points against a Falcons' team that had already learned they would not make the postseason in Week 15. Oh, and did I mention they're from New York?

Over in the NFC, the New Orleans Saints have been the Los Angeles Clippers of the league for years. They're one of the only pro sports teams that I know of with a negative connotation nickname (Ain'ts). But, the fans have rallied around the Saints since Hurricane Katrina ravaged their city just three short years ago. New Orleans' high-powered offense (this decade's "Greatest Show on Turf"), led by the likeable Drew Brees, has them a game within their first Super Bowl.

The Vikings have Brett Favre. Brett Favre, people! He of the Wrangler jeans, vicodin-addictions, and crocodile tears. Favre is always a story. Despite a lot of success on the football field (Minnesota has been to eight Conference Title games), the Vikings have NEVER won a Super Bowl. They have exciting players all over the field like Percy Harvin, Adrian Peterson, and Jared Allen.

Indianapolis is making its third Conference Title game appearance in seven years. Peyton Manning just won his fourth MVP. They've won at least 12 games in seven straight seasons. They've won an NFL-record 115 games over the past decade. The Colts won the Super Bowl three years ago, something that the three other teams remaining in the playoffs have combined to do just once in their collective 136-season existence, and zero times in the last forty years. Yawn.

Been there, done that. Nobody cares.

The only thing that matters is being front page news on the morning of February 7th.

Colts 24, Ravens 21

(I figured instead of teasing it, I'd just cut right to the chase with the score prediction)


Colts end up finding a way against Baltimore

Super-quick analysis...
Player of the Game: Pierre Garcon
After regaining contact with family members in Haiti, the 2nd year wideout responds to an emotionally-draining week with what turns out to be the game-winning touchdown grab.

Goat of the Game: Billy Cundiff
A forgettable postseason for NFL kickers continues, when Cundiff misses a potential game-tying field goal late in the fourth quarter that could've forced overtime.

Key matchup: Chris Carr vs. Garcon
I'm assuming that Dominique Foxworth gets Reggie Wayne, which will leave Carr to deal with Garcon. Carr has done a solid job this season, but isn't exactly Chris McAlister in his prime.