Saturday, February 26, 2011

Thanks, but...

The NBA Trade Deadline came and went with the Pacers having the same roster as they did earlier in the week. But, they were close to a major to making a major shakeup that never materialized. Indiana and Memphis had a deal in place to swap Josh McRoberts and Indy's First Round pick for troubled guard O.J. Mayo. Whether it was because of missing the 3 PM deadline, or the Pacers trying to recruit a third team (New Orleans) that pulled out at the last second, the deal didn't get done.

It was the best move the Pacers didn't make.


I enjoy Bob Kravitz's work in the IndyStar, but I couldn't disagree more with his take on the Mayo deal. While nobody questions O.J. Mayo's potential, he's been a headache everywhere he's gone. From high school incidents (playing for three different teams in four years, by the way) involving shoving a referee and being charged with marijuana possession, to taking improper benefits at USC, to getting on a fight on the team plane and testing positive for a steroid this year, Mayo has a troubled past. The third-year guard was a 17-18 points per game scorer in his first two years, but has regressed to an average of just over 12 ppg in year three. He's seen his minutes decrease as the Grizzlies have shopped him openly around the NBA. Yes, he's only 23, and just three years ago he was the third overall pick. But, we've seen what has happened in the past when Pacers have weighed talent over character, and it didn't end well.

Rebuilding has been an arduous process for the Pacers, but one thing they have accomplished is weeding out the character-issue guys. Stephen Jackson is gone. So is Shawne Williams. Ditto for Ron Artest. Why bring toxicity back to a locker room that has worked so hard to purge all of their malcontents in the past four years?

This isn't about McRoberts, who is a marginal role player that the Pacers will likely lose to free agency anyway. It also isn't about their First Round pick which will likely fall in the mid-to-late teens in what most believe will be a mediocre Draft. Those are two pieces that the Pacers could part with and not lose any sleep over. But, a me-first headcase with behavioral issues is the last thing this young team needs right now.

The Pacers haven't been pro-active enough, and the front office has been too passive, leading to this long rebuilding process. I'm not saying the Pacers shouldn't take any risks. But, they need to push their chips on the table on the right hand at the right time. Mayo wasn't a winning hand.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Power Outage

There's a severe star power shortage in the NBA's Western Conference.

For several years now, the power has been in the West where teams like the Spurs and Lakers have reigned supreme throughout the 2000s. Even beyond the elite level, the Mavericks, Jazz, Blazers, and Suns have all competed for Conference titles. Over in the East, we've seen some great teams like the current incarnation of the Celtics, LeBron's Cavs, or the 2003-07 Detroit Pistons, but once you got past the top three or four, there was nothing else to speak of. That's about to change.

Just in the last 36 hours, two of the Western Conference's biggest superstars in Carmelo Anthony and Deron Williams changed zip codes. Add in Amar'e Stoudemire jumping from Phoenix to New York last summer, and you can argue that three of the top ten players in the league have switched from the West to the East.

Look at the West now - the three best teams are the Spurs, Lakers, and Mavericks. Each have aging cores, and appear to soon be on the decline. Meanwhile in the East, Boston would fit under the Spurs-Lakers-Mavs category, but the rest of the Conference is on the rise. Miami has a trio of superstars in the prime of their careers. The Knicks have done the same with the duo of Carmelo and Amar'e. Even the teams near the bottom of the playoff standings like Philadelphia and Indiana have improving young cores.

If we're just comparing star power, the shift of balance really becomes apparent when you look at the ages. In the West, top players like Kobe Bryant (32 years old but 14 seasons in the NBA), Tim Duncan (soon-to-be 35), Manu Ginobili (33), Dirk Nowitzki (32), Steve Nash (37) all have left, or are leaving, their primes. Only four members of the West All-Star Team last week (discounting Anthony and Williams) are under the age of 30. When thinking of young(er) stars in the West, the list is pretty short: Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Monta Ellis. If you want to, you can also include All-Stars Kevin Love and Blake Griffin. In the East, you likely have seven of the top ten players in the entire NBA that are all under the age of 30: LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Dwight Howard, Derrick Rose, Amar'e Stoudemire, Carmelo Anthony, and Deron Williams. Beyond that, you have a second tier of stars that includes Rajon Rondo, Chris Bosh, Al Horford, and Josh Smith.

These things tend to go in cycles. The East dominated the league throughout the 1990s behind the strength of Jordan's Bulls, and teams like the Pistons, Knicks, Pacers, Heat, and Magic. The NFC dominated the NFL from the early 1980s to the late 1990s. The National League destroyed the AL for nearly two decades from the mid-1960s through the mid-1980s.

Like these other trends, I'd expect the West's dominance of the NBA to come to an end soon.

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Snubbed

There has been a major outcry locally over Reggie Miller not making the cut for the 2011 Basketball Hall-of-Fame class. Besides Peyton Manning, Miller is easily the most beloved figure in Indianapolis sports history.

Contrary to popular belief, you can make an argument that Reggie Miller isn't a Hall-of-Famer. He only made the All-NBA Team three times, never cracking the First or Second teams. Reggie only finished in the MVP voting twice (16th in 1997-98 and 13th in 1999-00). He was a one-trick pony as a scorer, and provided little else (3.0 rpg, 3.0 apg, 1.1 spg career). For being just a scorer, his career average of 18.2 ppg was respectable, but not on-par with the elites. Miller may rank 2nd all-time in three-pointers made, but he's just 17th in three-pointers made per game (1.8). You can poke holes in that resume.

However, there are other aspects of Reggie Miller's career that goes beyond numbers. He carried the Indiana Pacers' franchise for almost two decades. During his tenure, the Pacers saw an unprecedented run of success that included an Eastern Conference Championship (2000), and six trips to the Conference Finals (1994, 1995, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2004). Reggie had the ability to raise his game when it mattered most - something that separates the greats from the very goods. His 20.6 ppg in the Playoffs is almost 2 1/2 points per game better than his regular season average. Those numbers are even better when you take out his final three postseason appearances (2002-05) when he had become more of a role player and emotional leader than the go-to-guy. When in his prime, Miller was a 23.5 ppg Playoff scorer.

Reggie Miller's Playoff moments have been forever etched into NBA lore. The 25-point fourth quarter in the 1994 Eastern Conference Finals, the eight points in nine seconds in the 1995 East Semis, the game-winner to beat Jordan's Bulls in Game 4 of the 1998 East Finals, the epic finish to the decisive Game 5 against New Jersey in 2002, etc. The list goes on forever. I don't think the lack of a postseason resume should hurt a player, but I do think that it should help. He's one of the great clutch players in league history.

But, forget all of that.

We're not supposed to be arguing whether or not Reggie Miller is a Hall-of-Famer. What makes Friday's news a travesty isn't that Reggie Miller isn't in the Hall-of-Fame. It's that he wasn't even a FINALIST.

When this year's class was announced, most believed the Reggie would be the marquee name. No offense to Chris Mullin or Dennis Rodman, but neither of those players were better than Reggie Miller. And, there's no debate that Maurice Cheeks, Jamaal Wilkes, and Ralph Sampson weren't even on Reggie's level.

Here are a few reasons why:

FEATURED PLAYER
In the case of Wilkes, Cheeks, and Rodman, all were on Championship teams, but none of those players were ever the best players on those teams. Wilkes was part of great Lakers teams that included Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and later on Magic Johnson. Cheeks played with Julius Erving, Moses Malone, Andrew Toney, and later Charles Barkley in Philadelphia. Rodman played with Isiah Thomas, Joe Dumars, David Robinson, Sean Elliott, Michael Jordan, and Scottie Pippen in stints with the Pistons, Spurs, and Bulls. There was never any question as to who the best player on the Pacers was.

STATISTICS
Chris Mullin is the candidate that is the most similar to Miller. He only made five All-Star teams (like Miller), and finished in the MVP voting twice (like Miller). He also has a identical 18.2 ppg career scoring average to Miller's. However, unlike Reggie, Mullin really only had seven seasons as a great player. He ran into injury problems in the prime of his career, and was reduced to a veteran role player in the late 1990s after he was traded from Golden State to Indiana. He's the NBA's 64th all-time leading scorer, compared to Miller being 14th on the list.

Dennis Rodman is known for being a great rebounder and defender. Helping Rodman's case are his eight nominations to the NBA's All-Defensive Team, including being on the First Team seven times. He also won five NBA Championships as part of dynasty Detroit and Chicago teams. But, Rodman was only a two-time All-Star and never was named to an All-NBA Team. Rodman is only 11th all-time in rebounds (11,954), and 21st in rebounds per game (13.1). In 169 Playoff games, Rodman averaged a paltry 6.4 ppg and just 9.9 rpg - over three less than his career average. He was never more than the 3rd best player on any team that he ever played for. Take out the Championships, and his career isn't much better than the one Buck Williams had.

Maurice Cheeks was a good, but hardly a great player. His middling averages of 11.1 ppg and 6.7 apg (the same average as Mookie Blaylock) aren't close to Hall-of-Fame worthy. Ralph Sampson was one of the best collegiate players of all-time who never lived up to the hype as a pro mostly because of injuries. He played just 456 games in nine seasons, and really was only a premiere player for his first three years in the league. Jamaal Wilkes was a good player for about a dozen seasons, earning just three All-Star nods. If any of these three get in, then you might as well go ahead and let Stephon Marbury in, too.

If you dig a little deeper, the numbers shine for Reggie Miller. According to the stat geeks (and I use that term in a loving way) over at Basketball Prospectus, Miller's 172 career WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) ranks 12th of all NBA players in the last thirty years. It's tops among eligible players not yet inducted into the Hall-of-Fame. He's 14th on the NBA's all-time scoring list, and everyone in the Top 30 that is eligible is already in the Hall. The only two active players ahead of Mille are Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant, who are both easy Hall choices.

For Reggie to not be included on the list of finalists is an embarrassment. Unfortunately, this could mean that Miller might have to wait longer than most Pacers' fans originally thought. I still think he will eventually get in. But, sometimes the question of "when?" as opposed to "if?" is just as hard to answer.

Monday, February 14, 2011

No Spitting

I'm not going to make as big of a deal over Tiger's spitting incident as some others. If you haven't seen the clip, you can check it out here.



What I will say is the reason that I haven't been, and will never be a fan of Tiger Woods is because of his poor etiquette. I'm not 1/500th the golfer that Tiger is, but I know how to hack through 18 holes shooting a 96 without acting like a petulant child.

Friday, February 11, 2011

Apples to Oranges

Over the past three seasons, we've been bombarded with talk about the Big East's basketball dominance. In January and February, the league flexes it's collective muscle on Big Monday and Super Tuesday, generating a lot of buzz when the weekly AP and Coaches Polls are released. But, with all the talk about Big East dominance, why haven't they been that good in March?

A Big East team hasn't won a National Championship since UConn raised the trophy in 2004. In fact, they haven't had a respresentative even play in the National Championship Game since then. They're a paltry 3-2 against higher-seeded teams in the last two NCAA Tournaments, earning a nation-high total of 15 bids. Ten of those fifteens teams have been eliminated by lower-seeds. As you see, the Conference's perceived dominance hasn't scared off opponents in the last two March and Aprils:

2010
#1 Syracuse loses to #5 Butler, #2 Villanova loses to #10 St. Mary’s, #3 Georgetown loses to #14 Ohio, #3 Pittsburgh loses to #6 Xavier, #6 Notre Dame loses to #11 Old Dominion, #6 Marquette loses to #11 Washington

That's four losses to double-digit seeds, and the average seed disparity in those defeats being six seed-lines. The lone higher-seeded win of 2010 was #2 West Virginia's defeat of #1 Kentucky in the Regional Final.

2009
#1 Pittsburgh lost to #3 Villanova, #1 Louisville loses to #2 Michigan State, #1 UConn loses to #2 Michigan State, #6 West Virgnia loses to #11 Dayton

The results weren't as poor as 2010, but the big boppers (trio of #1 seeds in Lousiville, Pittsburgh, and UConn) were all bounced by lower-seeded teams. At least #3 Syracuse and #6 Marquette were respectable in losses to higher-seeded Oklahoma and Missouri.

The point isn't that the Big East isn't the best basketball conference in America - it is. However, comparing it to the SEC's dominance of football, just doesn't hold water. The last five football National Champions have come from the SEC, and the league is 15-6 all-time in BCS games. Compare that to the Big East, where current members are 0-5 in Final Fours since 2004, and the gap becomes apparent.

Let's see if they're able to truly be dominant in a couple of weeks.

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Boom, Boom, Bust

Some quick post-Super Bowl XLV thoughts:

- what a disaster for Dallas. In an effort to get into the Super Bowl rotation, things couldn't have possibly gone worse for them. Throw out all of their other issues (there were many), because it comes down to two things: 1) Ice injuring people outside of the stadium, and 2) the 400 fans left without seats for the game. When you screw up the safety of fans, and the fan experience, that's a black eye that doesn't go away.

- between Christina Aguilera's National Anthem flub and the shrieking awfulness of Fergie's version of the classic G&R hit "Sweet Child O' Mine", the music was some of the worst I've ever heard for a Super Bowl. Just brutal. I expected more from the Black Eyed Peas.

- Aaron Rodgers’ stats would’ve been even more impressive if he wasn’t the victim of several drops. One by James Jones and another by Jordy Nelson each would’ve resulted in long TD passes.

- Greg Jennings is one of those guys that just makes big plays. It seems like he always has a line of like 4 catches but a pair of scores.

- the running backs were largely ignored even though both played pretty well – James Starks only had 11 carries, but had 52 yards (4.7 ypc) and Rashard Mendenahll had 14 touches for 63 yards (4.5 ypc).

-Pittsburgh’s decision to kick a 52-yard field goal with Suisham didn’t end up hurting them, but it was a really poor decision. Sort of like trotting out Stover for that long attempt last year.

- Pittsburgh lost the game in the third quarter. They forced four punts, and had three straight possessions with the score at 21-17 and couldn’t do anything with it. On the 4th possession from the Green Bay 33, Mendenhall’s fumble gave the Packers the ball back.

- loved the option call from Roehtlisberger to Randle-El on the two-point conversion, but I still feel like ‘Twan should always run that.

- the Buck/Aikman booth was one of the most boring and unentertaining broadcasts in Super Bowl history. They added absolutely nothing to the game, and were completely unmemorable, even in critical moments. Neither of them told me something that I didn’t know about either team during the game, and it’s like they went out of their way to not mention Brett Favre.

Thursday, February 3, 2011

360?

Twelve days ago, Indiana was giving up 91 points in a 14-point thrashing at the hands of Big Ten cellar-dweller Iowa. Less than two weeks later, the perception of Tom Crean's rebuilding efforts has completely changed.

Back-to-back wins over ranked opponents, sandwiched between an overtime loss that the Hoosiers gave away in East Lansing, has IU fans singing a different tune. Sure, a 12-11 (3-7 Big Ten) record is nothing to crow about, but considering where Indiana looked to be headed, it's a bit of a small victory for Crean & Co.

I'm not going to go overboard and declare Tom Crean the Big Ten Coach of the Year like some are doing, but we're starting to see the Indiana team that we expected to see over the last three games. Reasonable Indiana fans weren't expecting this team to win on a consistent basis in the first three years. However, they were expecting IU to compete, something that they didn't do in losses to Iowa, Northwestern, and Ohio State. Frustrations reached a fever-pitch following the blowout loss to previously winless Iowa, but something must have clicked with Indiana following that setback.

Lacking a star, especially with the recent injury to Christian Watford, Indiana has to be a sum-of-its-parts team. Last night's win against Minnesota was a great example. Five Hoosiers scored between 8-12 points, with no one scoring more than 12. They got a bit from Matt Roth, a bit from Jordan Hulls, and a little bit more from Tom Pritchard and Verdell Jones. They'll need everyone to contribute if they want to enjoy similar results.

The recent streak has everyone re-examining Indiana's progress in year three. Progress is a funny thing - some judge it on how much progress you make. I've always felt like progress is progress, and though it's been slow, the progress is there:

2008-09 season: 6-25, 1-18
2009-10 season: 10-21, 4-14
This season: 12-11, 3-7

It's been a slow, arduous climb for Tom Crean and the Indiana program, but they are climbing. There are eight more games to see how far up the mountain they can go.