Shots' NBA Preview!

I have tried to shy away from predictions over the past few months due to my ill-fated Super Bowl picks of the last two years (Seattle vs. San Diego in 2008, New Orleans vs. Baltimore in 2007), and a horrifically bad NBA Finals prediction for the 2007-08 season (Suns vs. Bulls).

But ever since I picked Cincinnati to win one of the AFC Wild Card spots (I don't think I need to mention that winless Tennessee was my other WC pick), I'm feeling good. Doing the bull dance, feelin' the flow.

Here goes nothing...

EASTERN CONFERENCE
1) Boston – Most talented and deepest team in the NBA with the additions of Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels along with the re-signing of Glen Davis.
2) Orlando – Losing Hedo Tukuglo drops them behind the C’s. Vince is a great scorer, but I don’t know if he can be relied upon as much as Hedo was.
3) Cleveland – I’ve been heavy on the Cavs for two years now and they’ve disappointed me each time. So I’m going to knock them down a peg. The addition of Shaq still didn’t address their biggest need: a reliable 2nd scorer for LeBron James.
4) Atlanta – they won 47 games last season and it’s tough to believe they’ll improve on that, but this team appears to be the best of the rest. When you don’t need Jamal Crawford to be your #1 scorer like the Knicks did, he can be a good player.
5) Chicago – I think people are overrating the loss of Ben Gordon. John Salmons may be less of a high-reward player, but he’s also less streaky. Add in a healthy Luol Deng and the continued progress of Derrick Rose and they’ll be better.
6) Washington – Worst to sixth? You can believe it with this team. A healthy Gilbert Arenas, plus Caron Butler and Antwan Jamison makes this an intriguing team.
7) Detroit – they go up one spot for spending a boatload of money trying to turn themselves into a UConn All-Star team.
8) Miami - putting them here is more a representation of just how good Dwyane Wade is. An aging J.O., and eccentric Michael Beasley, and a bunch of nobodies (outside of Mario Chalmers) aren't going to give them much.
----------THE REST----------
9) Philadelphia – Elton Brand is old, but the rest of the team is young and exciting. I really like Thaddeus Young. He’s going to be a star.
10) Indiana – this is the classic example of a team that will be better, but it won’t necessarily show as far as wins and losses are concerned. Exciting wins over contenders will be off-set by head-scratching losses to bottom-feeders.
11) Toronto – I didn’t really understand the Hedo Turkuglo signing. Tough team to gauge really… Could finish as high as 5th, could be bad as 14th if they tank early and sell off Chris Bosh and other assets.
12) Charlotte – when you’re terrible defensively and you swap a guy like Emeka Okafor for Tyson Chandler, chances are you’re going to get worse.
13) NY Knicks – seven players on expiring deals. Seven! Nate Robinson, David Lee, Wilson Chandler, and Danilo Gallinari would all be nice players… as a 7th man on a contending team that is.
14) New Jersey – good young core. In a similar situation to the Knicks in that they’re banking on making a splash next summer.
15) Milwaukee – No Jefferson, No Villanueva, No Sessions = No chance to crack 30 wins.

EAST PLAYOFFS
First round: Boston over Miami, Orlando over Detroit, Washington over Cleveland, Chicago over Atlanta
Conference Semis: Boston over Chicago, Orlando over Washington
Conference Finals: Boston over Orlando

WESTERN CONFERENCE
1) LA Lakers – give me one reason why I shouldn’t put them here. Ok, fair enough. But, cancel out the “season-wrecking, mass-suspension brawl incited by the newly-acquired Ron Artest” and I guarantee you can’t think of one.
2) San Antonio – as sick as this makes me to put them here, they are perhaps the deepest team in the West. The additions of Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess aren’t exciting, but will pay dividends. It’s all about staying healthy (especially Manu) for this group.
3) Denver – I don’t think they’ll be able to duplicate what they did last year, but Carmelo’s continued maturation makes me a believer. Plus, it’s tough to doubt any team with Chauncey Billups running the show.
4) Portland – I’m not sure what they’re planning to do at point guard with Andre Miller and Steve Blake, but this team is stacked all over the place. It’s time for this group – specifically Greg Oden – to take the next step.
5) Utah – they’re very, very good, but not great. They’ve got a bunch of #2s (Deron, Boozer) playing in a Conference where all of the contenders have a #1 (Kobe, Duncan, Melo). That and it's hard to imagine a Jerry Sloan coached team not making the postseason.
6) New Orleans – I have decided that I like Chris Paul way too much. If this team had a shooter (ala Peja ten years ago) they’d be a legit Finals contender.
7) Dallas – they seem to be caught in the NBA purgatory of being good enough to consistently make the playoffs but not good enough to be a serious title contender. Shawn Marion and Jason Kidd? Eh.
8) LA Clippers – I locked into this before Blake Griffin’s kneecap went the way of Michael Jackson’s nose… too soon?



----------THE REST----------
9) Phoenix – Nash is 35 and running on fumes and there is a huge question mark with Amare Stoudemire returning from a retina injury.
10) Houston – the injuries are just too much for this team to survive, even though I like replacing Artest with Trevor Ariza. Smart move.
11) Golden State – too much controversy with Stephen Jackson and Monta Ellis, plus what appears to be a lame-duck coach in Don Nelson.
12) Oklahoma City – with Durant, Harden and Green, the future looks bright. But, the future isn’t now.
13) Memphis – Allen Iverson + Zach Randolph + O.J. Mayo + one basketball? Doesn’t seem like a good equation. I will say that I like some of the youngsters like Gasol, Conley, Mayo (talented but erratic), and Thabeet.
14) Minnesota – they drafted two points guards in Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn, then spend $16 million on another in Ramon Sessions? Way to go, David Kahn!
15) Sacramento – pretty much universally regarded as the NBA’s worst team.

WEST PLAYOFFS
First Round: LA Lakers over LA Clippers, San Antonio over Dallas (yawn), Denver over New Orleans, Portland over Utah
Conference Semis: LA Lakers over Portland, San Antonio over
Conference Finals: LA Lakers over San Antonio

NBA Finals: Boston over LA Lakers in 6 - they're the most talented and deepest team in the league, and having a healthy Kevin Garnett back makes them that much better defensively. That and I'm going chalk because I don't feel like being risky.

BC Weekend

Early tomorrow morning, I'll be heading up to South Bend to see if Notre Dame can end a six-game losing streak to Boston College. Part of the reason for that skid is the Eagles missing the Irish in their two most successful seasons of the decade (2005, 2006). That being said, it has a lot more to do with BC's phenomenal effort, and Notre Dame's somewhat lackadaisical attitude towards this game.

Some Notre Dame fans deny that their annual matchup with Boston College is a "rivalry". I beg to differ. The Irish fans that don't consider BC a rival or either too arrogant or too embarrassed (upset losses in 1993 and 2002) to admit that the Eagles have been more that a worthy foe.

The talent-level at Notre Dame is almost always higher than it is at Boston College. But, if the Irish could give half as much effort as the BC kids week-in and week-out, we wouldn't be having conversations about Notre Dame football's relevancy or Charlie Weis' job security.

Here's hoping the streak ends.



Go Irish.

Phillips' Sleazy Scandal

Remember when sex scandals used to be a big deal?

Nowadays, infidelities by public figures are greeted with a roll of the eyes and a shrug of the shoulders. That being said, ESPN's Steve Phillips may have taken the term "sleaze bag" to a whole new level.

Phillips, who had multiple affairs and was sued for sexual harrassment during his time as a Mets' executive, is in the news again for a similar situation. This time the story gets much juicier as Phillips had a brief fling with a 22-year old production intern at ESPN. Unfortunately for him, his mistress got a bit emotionally involved (to put it lightly). Brooke Hundley went as far to contact Phillips' wife and mother of his children, while reaching out to his 16-year old son via Facebook. It sounds like the plot for a bad Lifetime movie.

Though cheating on your spouse is not something I condone, and is the ultimate representation of a person's true character (or lack thereof), couldn't Steve at least get his money's worth?

I mean...



















Really?

If I was going to cheat, I'd make sure it was with somebody other than Steve Perry.

Obviously you feel for Phillips' family. Nobody should have to go through what they've been subjected to over the past decade. However, as far as Steve goes, maybe he'll finally learn his lessson. The worst part about this whole saga for baseball fans will be trying to ignore the gross personal details that Hundley shared with the world while watching Steve Phillips analyze pitching matchups.

(Shudder.)

Not Funny

I know there's plenty of relevant baseball discussion to be had with both the Yankees and Phillies out to commanding 3-1 leads. However, can anyone else get over the fact that Wanda Sykes is going to have her own show on FOX?

If you have been watching any of the ALCS, chances are you've been flooded with spots for "The Wanda Sykes Show" which premieres next month on FOX. I guess Sykes is FOX's answer to George Lopez (TBS) and Jimmy Fallon (NBC). What, was Sinbad unavailable?

In her new promo last night, Skyes experiments with some stand-up. In the scene she is reading a newspaper and the following exchange transpires:

"Looks like the divorce rates in this country are lower."
"That's no surprise considering how the economy is." (Wait for it...)
"People are too broke to break up."

(Crickets.)

Five years ago, FOX gave her a shot with Wanda At Large which was canceled soon after airing. Oh, but I'm sure viewers will give her more of a chance this time around.

May God have mercy on your soul FOX.

Time for Results

If you hadn't noticed already, the clock is officially ticking on Charlie Weis.

With a chance - a suprisingly good chance - at his first signature victory, Weis and the Irish came away with another signature loss. A runner-up finish to USC in a 34-27 loss. Normally, losing by seven points to the #6 team (they're better than that) in the country wouldn't be anything to complain about. But after four-and-a-half years of coming close, there's still one thing that has yet to be found in South Bend:

Results.

"Anyone who doesn't realize the fight that's in the Fighting Irish is missing the boat. Down three scores, everyone in the house probably figured it was time to throw in the towel. Not this group. No way." - Charlie Weis

Do those sounds like the words of a head coach in year number five of one of the most storied programs in college football history? Or does it sound like a rookie head coach, taking a moral victory in his above-average team hanging tough with a juggernaut?

The time for moral victories and kudos for team effort are over. Frankly, they've been over since this summer, when the memories of 3-9 were months in the past and most of this star-studded group including Jimmy Clausen and Golden Tate officially became upperclassmen. This team may not have Championship-caliber talent, but does that matter? Ask Cincinnati about talent. Hell, ask Georgia Tech. How about Iowa? Can anyone seriously argue that the Bearcats, Yellow Jackets, and Hawkeyes have more talent than Notre Dame? Yet, all of those teams win consistently, and beat good competition (gasp!).

This is Notre Dame. This isn't Northwestern (though they certainly look similar lately, don't they?). This isn't Stanford. This isn't even Boston College - even though BC regularly beats the tar out of the Irish and annually plays way over their talent level. This is supposed to be a program that competes for National Championships. A program where BCS bowls aren't hoped for - they're a given.

Instead of talking about the 500+ yards of total offense that the Trojans racked up and numerous missed opportunities by the offense down the stretch, the Irish are patting themselves on the back for fighting? Knute Rockne must be rolling over in his grave.

Sure the Notre Dame players deserve some credit for fighting back from a 34-14 deficit, but they're to blame for digging themselves into that hole in the first place. It appears that the program is slowly moving in the right direction - closing the gap, if you will. But, how do we really know that? What the Irish have done during the Charlie Weis era is all bun. Where's the beef?

Since the start of 2007, Weis' teams are 1-15 against teams that finished with a winning record. 1-9 against teams that finished the season ranked in the Top 25. He owns a 4-13 combined record against USC, Michigan State, Michigan, and Boston College during his tenure. Does that sound like a program that's moving in the right direction?

Do they have moral victories at places like USC?

I'm going to wait until the rest of the season plays out until my final decision on whether or not Weis should be retained. But, with Saturday's "signature" loss to USC, Notre Dame doesn't have very many chances to impress outside observers. A road win at Pitt (6-1) may help, but Pitt isn't Michigan, and they certainly aren't USC.

Close losses to the USCs and Michigans of the world and squeaker-wins over the Purdues and Michigan States aren't going to get it done. Yet, that's been the ceiling under Charlie Weis.

Trophies for moral victories. Banners for bowl wins over Hawaii. Kudos for effort. Decade-long contract extensions for misplaced visions of grandeur.

Welcome to the last 15 years of Notre Dame football.

But, hey at least they're fighting, right?

Bi-Polar Boilers

Losses to Northern Illinois and Northwestern.

Win over Ohio State?

Classic Purdue - up and down. But in all seriousness, congratulations to Danny Hope and his team. With all the crap (bad luck) they've been through this year, it's nice to see the Boilers break through. I wonder if this will be the win we look back on ala Notre Dame in '97 (Joe Tiller) as a turnaround moment for the Purdue program.

Oh, and how about Hope in the middle of the crowd rush?

Let's see Charlie Weis do that...

Rush has the Right

How 'bout that for a play on words?

There's been a lot of talk this week about Rush Limbaugh's quest for NFL ownership, especially now that Colts owner Jim Irsay was one of the first to come out against the bid. Irsay called Limbaugh "insensitive" and said a person like Limbaugh was someone the NFL "didn't need".

Isn't it a coincidence that this news is released two months to the day that Michael Vick was signed by the Eagles?

Remember this summer when everyone was campainging for a convicted felon to be reinstated into the league? Now Rush Limbaugh, a man who made some insensitive comments about Donovan McNabb six years ago, is getting stonewalled. So much for the "America is the land of opportunity and second chances" statement that so many used to defend Vick, eh?

If there's one thing I can't stand, it's hypocrisy. The NFL, a league inhabited by players that have murdered dogs, committed vehicular homicide, DUIs, participated in domestic abuse, and drug arrests doesn't want Rush Limbaugh to give them a bad name?

Give me a break.

Limbaugh, a right-winger, has said some insensitive and offensive things that I do not agree with. But, if he has the money and he wants to bid on an NFL team, he has the right to do so. Bill Maher, a left-winger, is anti-religion and has publicly derided Mormons by calling them "shape-shifters". If he has the money and wants to bid on an NFL team, he has the right to do so. What's the difference between preventing these people from buying an NFL team and buying a store? I am offended by many things and many people - that doesn't mean that they don't have the same basic rights that I do as an American.

Right, Left, Black, White, Yellow, Green, whatever. This is America. Limbaugh can bid for a team if he wants and if the owners don't like it, then they can vote against it. But please, spare me the Al Sharpton marches, and the player collusions.

It's a shame how the same core beliefs that we argue so vehemently for in this country, are the ones that we are so quick to forget later.

And you wonder why I hate politics.

Redefining "Bad"

Over the first five weeks of the NFL season, there seems to be one absolute truth: there are some really bad football teams in this league.

You can probably count anywhere from 10-12 teams that won't have a chance to win even six games. The Bills, Browns, Titans, Raiders, Chiefs, Lions, Buccaneers, and Rams are on the lowest tier. You can add the Jaguars, Redskins, and Panthers if you want - that's 11 of the NFL's 32 teams.

Maybe that's being generous...

I didn't include the 2-3 Texans on that list, who have only beaten Oakland and Tennessee. The 2-2 Cardinals haven't given much of a reason to believe that they'll break the Super Bowl loser curse. Miami (1-3) has Chad Henne at quarterback and a one-dimensional offense. Seattle just beat Jacksonville 41-0, but they have severe injury issues, and have been dismantled by superior teams.

There is a clear line between good and bad in the NFL this year. The only teams that seem like they are 8-8ish squads are Packers, 49ers, and Cowboys. Everybody else is either a contender, or a team that has little-to-no chance at making the postseason.

MLB Postseason Picks

I know I'm late posting this, but I'll guess you'll just have to trust me...

ALDS - Yankees over Twins in 4
Why? The Twins are a great story but the Yankees are better in every imaginable way.

ALDS - Red Sox over Angels in 5
Why? Boston has a lot of small advantages in just about every category, which adds up. The real difference here is the strenght of the Sox bullpen compared to that of the Angels.

NLDS - Rockies over Phillies in 5
Why? No one has answered the question of closer for Philly. Even if they go closer-by-committee, I don't like their chances.

NLDS - Cardinals over Dodgers in 3
Why? Dodgers are struggling right now, and they have a bunch of solid starters with no ace. The Cardinals very quietly have distanced themselves from the other contenders in the NL.

ALCS - Yankees over Red Sox in 6
Why? It sounds simple but the Yankees are a better team. Better lineup, better bullpen, and the gap between their starting rotations isn't as large as in years past.

NLCS - Cardinals over Rockies in 5
Why? Having Carpenter/Wainwright as your 1-2 punch is good enough to stifle the Rockies' bats, at least at Busch Stadium.

World Series - Yankees over Cardinals in 6
Two of the most storied franchises in baseball meet, and the Cardinals put up a worthy fight. In the end, the Yankees steal one from either Carpenter or Wainwright and get enough from their starting pitching to get by.

Offense Wins Championships

Thought this was classic:

Tip to Stampede Blue via Indy Lori

Way to represent, Colts' fans.

New Kids on the Block

With the Colts out to a 3-0 start despite several key injuries, I decided to take a look at some of the newbies (or players in expanded roles) who have attributed to Indy's early success...

Pierre Garcon
I was always intrigued by Garcon’s potential, but was unsure as to whether his success at the Division-III level would translate to the NFL – or at least how long it would take. He’s no Anthony Gonzlaez, but he’s filled in very admirably with long touchdowns in back-to-back weeks. It sounds ridiculous, but I think I’m the most impressed with his blocking ability. In seemingly all of the Colts’ big plays against Miami and Arizona, he was in there throwing a key block downfield.

Donald Brown
He knows where he’s going when he gets the ball. I think the main difference between Brown and Addai is that Brown makes things happen when he has the ball and Addai waits for things to happen. His numbers may not look like much (99 total rushing yards, 3.4 ypc), but he’s averaging 28 yards per catch thanks to last week’s 70-yarder against Arizona. I hate the eye test, but he passes it.

Charlie Johnson (new role as starter)
Some were not happy with him being promoted to starter over Tony Ugoh, a guy the Colts traded a future first-rounder for. However, so far Charlie has not yielded a sack and his run blocking has been solid. I re-watched the Colts/Cards game the other night and they seemed to have much more success running to Johnson’s side than to Diem’s – I guess part of that could be having Pollack and DeVan on that side as well.